DETROIT – So many of you are asking about the weekend storm that I've prepared this update to help you plan and prepare.
Here's the latest:
First of all, we should be dry Friday night -- no worries.
However, the National Weather Service issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Saturday to highlight the potential for hazardous travel, and with good reason. Precipitation will move into the area from south to north between 8 a.m. and 11 a.m. The farther south you live the earlier you get it, while those of you up in the Thumb may not see much until mid to late morning.
8 a.m. Saturday (courtesy Penn State e-WALL):
Although it's possible that we could start with some snow (the northern Thumb and Saginaw Valley region could pick up a couple of inches), I think the bulk of the morning precipitation for most of us will be freezing rain, which results from rain forming in above freezing temperatures aloft, and then freezing into ice on contact with the below freezing surface. Warmer surface air will also be streaming northward Saturday and, as air temperatures here at the surface rise above freezing from south to north during the afternoon, any rain falling will no longer freeze once that occurs. Again, there will be a timing difference depending upon how far north or south you live.
11 a.m. Saturday (courtesy Penn State e-WALL):
Areas well south of Detroit will see the quickest changeover from freezing rain to "regular" rain (possibly even by late morning near the state line). As you go farther north in the Local 4 viewing area, you'll see an extra 1-3 hours of freezing rain. My one concern is for those of you who live in the higher terrain areas. Your temperatures are naturally a little cooler, and in a situation like we'll see tomorrow, being a degree or two cooler could mean a more prolonged period of freezing rain. You can even see this impact on the set of computer models shown in this article.
4 p.m. Saturday (courtesy of Penn State e-WALL) -- Notice the pink over the higher terrain areas, such as the Irish Hills -- this shows that freezing rain could potentially linger there well into the afternoon:
Needless to say, travel could become very tricky between mid-morning and mid-afternoon on Saturday, so be careful if you'll be out and about.
Temperatures will continue rising Saturday night -- to near 40 degrees -- so we won't have any icing problems, then just rain.
A strong cold front will cross the area either late Saturday night or first thing Sunday morning. Sunday will start with temperatures well into the 30s, but those temps will crash and we'll be in the 20s by the end of the afternoon. Although we could see a period of snow showers Sunday afternoon, that will only add insult to injury, as wind will be increasing through the day as well. Sunday night and Monday will be windy with bitter cold wind chills (probably sub-zero most of that time), and the big chill should stick around all next week with highs in the teens and nighttime lows in the single numbers. Those of you with school children might as well plan right now on either driving your kids to school or providing a warm car to sit in at the morning bus stop all next week.
Oh and by the way, it still looks as if we'll be shoveling snow on Tuesday. It's way too early to say for sure, but this could be a 2-4" fluffy snowfall.
Remember to follow me on Twitter for updates this weekend…I'm at @PaulGrossLocal4.
Have a safe weekend.
Follow me on Twitter: @PaulGrossLocal4