DETROIT – Metro Detroit is gearing up for its first winter storm of the season and I couldn’t be more excited. I love winter!
I also enjoy the challenges of forecasting snow storms knowing they have a much more widespread effect on SE Lower Michigan and Southern Ontario than spring and summer storms that fire up here, and bring nothing there.
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Snow is coming and it will be a problem for all of us. Right now, the challenges are more about accumulations than timing.
Here’s an early look at how I think this winter wallop will go:
Saturday is OK
First things first, this is a Sunday event. So your Saturday plans are much more calm and much less snowy. We’ll see a few pockets of light, lake effect snow but that’s it. Temps in the 20s Saturday and feeling every bit of winter.
Snow arrives Saturday night
Snow moves into Metro Detroit from west to east after midnight on Saturday. Our far West Zone (Jackson, Ann Arbor, Adrian) could see move in just before midnight. Light to moderate snow through the early morning hours Sunday will be phase one. We will likely see a pretty broad stroke of 2-4 inches by about 10 a.m. Sunday.
Sunday midday lull
We very well could see a midday lull in the action. It will either be dry or lightly snowing through the early afternoon adding only minor accumulations from the morning.
Phase 2 Sunday afternoon
Late afternoon and evening is the start of phase two as a frontal boundary lifts into SE Lower Michigan and moderate to heavy snow will begin again. This will likely add another 3-5 inches as we head through the evening and overnight into early Monday. Yes, snow should continue into the work and school week.
By Monday morning:
At least 4-7 inches, possibly more
Snow total predictions will change over the next 24 hours so stay tuned to the Local4Casters for updates as new information comes in. There is a very good likelihood that we will see at least 4-7 inches early Sunday into early Monday. Some model data is hinting at a bit more bringing as much as 6-12 inches of snow across Metro Detroit. It’s a bit too early for a storm out West that is still organizing. The last thing we want to do is sound the alarm and overshoot our first big snow of the season. Again, expect these numbers to fluctuate a bit as the storm gets moving and the model data becomes more clear.
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