DETROIT – Before getting to the forecast, I want to quickly explain what happened to last night's snow.
As you may recall from yesterday's forecast, I wrote about a prominent lake effect band that all of the computer models were projecting to extend eastward from Lake Michigan to somewhere between Interstate 96 and M-59. If you were watching Local 4 News this past weekend, I told you that these intense bands are usually very narrow -- only five to eight miles wide -- and affect only a localized part of our area. If this band materialized and you were under it for a few hours, you'd pick up an easy couple of inches of snow.
So what happened? The band developed, but shifted northward and impacted the I-69 corridor, with 2-3 inches of snow falling there, instead of in central Oakland and Livingston Counties. These lake effect snow bands are notoriously hard to pinpoint in a forecast: there is a sharp cutoff between areas that get a bunch of snow and areas that get no snow, and even a slight ten degree shift in the wind direction can shift a band to that somebody who was expecting to shovel gets nothing, and somebody who expected to get nothing has to shovel. Yesterday's models were pretty insistent on the location of that lake effect band, and there was no evidence for me to even consider changing my forecast to a location farther north.
By the way, for those of you who need to hear something more impressive, we set three different temperature records today! This morning's low of 11 degrees tied the record set back in 1880, this afternoon's high temperature of 22 degrees smashed the record for lowest high temp for this date of 30 degrees set in 1926, and today's average temperature of 17 degrees smashed the old record of 25 degrees also set back in 1926. Three records in one day!!!
Alright, now that that's out of my system (you know me, I need to explain this stuff), let's move on to the forecast:
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Forecast:
Tonight will feature any lingering snow showers ending, with skies becoming partly cloudy. I'm forecasting temperatures well below what the computer models are projecting -- I expect lows once again around 11 degrees. Southwest wind at 10 to 15 mph.
An Alberta Clipper will bring widespread snow to our area on Wednesday, but Paul Gross is going to save the morning rush hour: I think most of us won't see any snow until sometime after 9:00 AM (this is a very close call for those of you in southwest Lenawee County). Snow should start tapering off by late afternoon, with most of us probably picking up 1.5 inches to 2 inches of snow. Highs near 30, but it'll be breezy with a southwest wind at 10 to 20 mph.
Alright…time to talk about another lake effect snow band. The models insist that another lake effect snow band will develop later Wednesday night possibly into Thursday morning…this one possibly impacting our western I-94 corridor. So after reading my explanation above, why would you trust me here? Because the models also suggest a trough (or line) of low pressure also swinging down across the state, which could enhance the potential for this band to develop. Stay tuned on this -- I'll diligently watch all of the hi-resolution computer models and try to be as specific about this as possible tomorrow. Lows Wednesday night in the upper teens.
Partly cloudy and windy on Thursday with snow showers possible (particularly if that lake effect band discussed above develops Wednesday night). Highs in the mid to upper 20s. Snow showers end Thursday night, with skies becoming mostly clear. Lows around 10.
Mostly sunny on Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 20s. Increasing clouds late Friday night, with lows in the low 20s.
Saturday begins the long anticipated warming trend I've been telling you about. The day will be mostly cloudy, with drizzle or light rain showers possible during the afternoon. Although highs should eventually reach the upper 30s, if the rain arrives earlier than the temperature reaching the upper 30s, then I might have to start looking closer at the thermodynamic profile for Saturday since snow or freezing rain would then have to be added to the forecast. The best chance for this would be north of metro Detroit.
Rain showers likely Saturday night, with lows in the mid 30s.
Rain showers continue on Sunday and Sunday night, with highs in the mid to upper 40s, and lows Sunday night near 40.
More rain showers on Monday, although a cold front coming through later in the day could generate a few snow showers behind it. Highs in the upper 40s before the front comes through.
Tuesday will be cooler with a chance of snow showers. Highs in the low 30s.