Metro Detroit is expected to be hit with severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening, with some risks of hail and tornadoes.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and evening of March 26, prompting a 4Warn Weather Alert.
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Latest forecast --> A warmer Wednesday across Metro Detroit before severe weather threat arrives Thursday
Timeline
Some showers and a storm or two will arrive in Metro Detroit around 4 to 5 p.m. on Thursday.
The primary window for strong storms begins at 7 p.m. By 9 p.m. or 10 p.m., most of the storm should be moved out of the SE Michigan area.
Overnight, temperatures will drop sharply, with highs around 40 degrees on Friday.
Tornado risk
A risk for tornadoes is slightly higher in the southern communities of Metro Detroit, but isolated strong tornadoes (EF2 or greater) are not out of the question across most of Southeast Michigan.
That comes with wind speeds of 111 mph or stronger.
If that happens, these tornadoes wouldn’t be the quick spin-ups we’re used to in Southeast Michigan. An EF-2 tornado could damage homes, tear apart mobile homes, and snap large trees in half.
Hail risk
Conditions will be favorable for large hail, even in the marginal risk area. Hail could form up to 2 inches, which is the size of a tennis ball. That’s not a guarantee, but the atmospheric conditions are there for that potential.
What happens is super cooled water droplets go up in the clouds and then bounce up and down and become frozen. The longer they stay in the cloud, the bigger they get, until the updraft weakens and they fall.
Hail is expected to develop in pockets around Southeast Michigan, so not everybody will see large hail. But there could be some storms that develop in spots and create it.
The wind threat is more downstream of here, so our area gets more of the hail threat, while Ohio gets more of the wind threat.
Flooding, wind risks
Damaging wind potential will be a little greater closer to the Ohio state line. However, most of the area will be at risk of isolated damaging wind gusts exceeding 60 mph.
There’s a very low-end threat for flash flooding on Thursday. The threat is lower because while there will be isolated downpours, but we don’t anticipate an abundance of rain to lead to that flash flooding concern.
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