DETROIT – The Detroit Tigers are 10 games into the regular season, and there are some early trends that I’m buying and others I’m already worried about.
▶️ Watch below: Early season Tigers takeaways on Detroit Sports+.
Buying: Tigers can compete with anybody
That sweep in Los Angeles feels like a long time ago, but I don’t think Tigers fans should be quick to forget.
I don’t care that the Tigers lost all three games to the Dodgers. What stood out most was that this team clearly belonged on the same field as what many are calling the best roster ever assembled.
The Tigers weren’t overmatched by Blake Snell or Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They weren’t starstruck by Shohei Ohtani or Mookie Betts or Freddie Freeman.
Detroit was one thread of Manuel Margot’s jersey away from winning Game 2, and the go-ahead run was on base when Colt Keith fouled out to end Game 1.
Losing all three games was disappointing, but the Tigers responded by taking five of six against the Mariners and White Sox.
Then, on Monday, Casey Mize shoved against the best lineup in baseball (so far), leading the Tigers to a snowy win over the mighty New York Yankees.
What better barometer could there be for an up-and-coming team than to play both participants from last year’s World Series? Even if the Tigers drop the next two games against the Yankees, it’s obvious they can compete with the best.
Buying: 4-team race in AL Central
Yes, it’s early. But yes, I care that the Tigers are in first place.
I think every single win is going to be important in this race. Nothing so far has convinced me that the Tigers, Royals, Guardians, or Twins are going to separate themselves from the pack.
Sure, maybe injuries or an uncharacteristic cold stretch will knock someone out, but it sure feels like it’s going to be a busy summer of scoreboard watching.
The Royals look like the stiffest competition so far -- and not only because they’re currently in second.
Bobby Witt Jr. is a superstar, and Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez, Jonathan India, and others give the lineup depth. The starting rotation is led by a strong trio: Cole Ragans, Kris Bubic, and Seth Lugo.
Cleveland “got worse” this offseason on paper, but I’ve learned never to count out that organization. I’ll feel safe from the Guardians only when there’s an “e” next to their name in the standings (for “eliminated”).
Minnesota is off to a rough 3-7 start, but the talent is there on paper, especially with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober at the top of the rotation. Zebby Matthews will join them soon.
Worried: Javier Baez moving up lineup
Javier Baez is actually off to a nice start this season. He’s 7-for-22 with a pair of doubles and only three strikeouts.
My concern isn’t with how Baez has played. My concern is with the way the Tigers have reacted to 22 at-bats’ worth of data.
Baez started the season batting eighth or ninth in the lineup, and he’s already up to the No. 6 spot, as of Monday. A.J. Hinch also used him as a pinch hitter in a critical spot against the White Sox.
Yes, I know the Tigers were facing a left-handed starting pitcher on Monday. And I know Baez pinch hit for Ryan Kreidler. But these are just the latest examples of a larger problem: This team is so quick to latch onto any sign of life from Baez, and much slower to react to his struggles.
There is absolutely nothing in Baez’s batted ball profile to suggest he has improved from last season. He hasn’t drawn a walk. He’s making extremely weak contact. The Tigers are led by incredibly smart baseball minds, but they have a blind spot for Baez.
Buying: Tigers maximizing offensive potential
The early metrics show that the Tigers are taking a very deliberate team-wide approach at the plate.
How do you get the most out of a lineup that, to be frank, doesn’t have many proven MLB hitters? How can you maximize the production of guys like Andy Ibanez, Zach McKinstry, Trey Sweeney, and Baez?
By prioritizing the best kind of contact -- that’s how.
Detroit is a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of ground ball and fly ball rates, but best in the American League with a 25.8% line drive percentage.
Line drives are the most reliably effective form of contact. They result in the highest expected batting average and slugging percentage.
You know what type of contact is the least productive? Popups. Popups are basically as bad as strikeouts. And the Tigers have the lowest popup percentage in baseball, at 4%.
But it’s not just how the Tigers are impacting the ball. It’s also where. The Tigers rank third in the AL with a 43.1% pull rate. I know announcers love nothing more than a base hit to the opposite field, and yes, it helps to be able to hit the ball where it’s pitched.
But if a batter wants to do consistent damage, they need to pull the ball in the air. And that’s exactly what the Tigers are doing up and down the lineup.
The result is a 41.1% launch angle sweet spot -- more than 5% better than the second-best team in MLB (the Marlins at 36%).
The Tigers don’t have an Aaron Judge, or an Elly de la Cruz, or a Bobby Witt Jr. But that doesn’t mean they can’t squeeze as much power as possible out of the guys they do have.
It’s obviously a very concerted effort by the Tigers, and it’s refreshing to see them maximizing their roster’s offensive potential.
Buying: Aggressive, but pesky at-bats
When you think of players selling out to trying to pull the ball, you might think that comes with uncompetitive at-bats. But that hasn’t been the case in Detroit.
The Tigers rolled out an approach that’s both aggressive and patient. They rank second in MLB in first-pitch swing percentage but fourth in the league with 46 walks in 10 games.
Yes, the Tigers will swing and miss. But the Dodgers and Yankees -- as well as the division rival Guardians and Twins -- have even higher whiff rates. So it’s not alarming, by any means.
The Tigers are working tough at-bats but also attacking pitches in the zone. That’s the main reason they rank at the top of the AL in solid contact percentage.
Scott Harris emphasized it the moment he took over as Tigers president: Master the strike zone. That’s exactly what the Tigers are starting to do at the plate, and it’s why the offense has looked better than anyone expected.
Worried: Riley Greene’s strikeout rate
Riley Greene is off to a great start offensively, with a .317 average, a .967 OPS, and three homers.
But the strikeout rate is still a bit concerning.
Greene struck out in 26.7% of his plate appearances last season, and it was basically the only blemish on what otherwise looked like a superstar profile.
So far, that issue hasn’t improved. In fact, Greene is striking out in 35.7% of his plate appearances so far, and whiffing on 31.6% of his swings.
Greene still makes great contact when he puts the ball in play, but the plate discipline issues are dragging down his expected stats across the board.
We only have a small sample size to analyze so far this season, but since strikeouts have been an issue for Greene in the past, it’s a little concerning that this could hold him back from taking a true superstar turn, which is certainly within his range of possible outcomes.
Buying: Spencer Torkelson is back
Spencer Torkelson’s excellent spring training has carried over into the regular season. He’s hitting .289 with a .400 OBP and a pair of homers through 45 plate appearances.
Torkelson is letting his athleticism drive his swing decisions, as opposed to overanalyzing the data. He talked about it openly throughout the spring, and the result is a much more confident and consistent hitter -- one resembling the guy who mashed his way through the minor leagues.
I don’t think Torkelson is going to hit much higher than .250-.260, but it should come with a respectable OBP and above-average power. That sure sounds like the right-handed bat the Tigers needed at the heart of their lineup.
Nine of his 11 hits and five of his six extra-base knocks have come to the pull side of the field, so Torkelson has also bought into the team’s offensive approach.
Buying: Justyn-Henry Malloy’s elite OBP
Justyn-Henry Malloy might have the best eye in MLB behind Juan Soto. That has always been his best tool in the minors, and it’s absolutely translating to the MLB level.
Since getting called up and thrust into the primary leadoff role, Malloy owns a 30.8% walk rate (clearly unsustainable) and an 18.8% chase rate. Those rank in the 99th and 90th percentiles in MLB, respectively.
Malloy has been victimized by some questionable third strike calls, and he would probably be one of the league’s greatest beneficiaries of an automated strike zone, but still, his incredible plate discipline has his OBP at .462.
Malloy has some swing and miss in his game, and he doesn’t hit the ball all that hard. But almost every trip to the dish is a quality plate appearance, and that has huge value.
Worried: Where does Malloy fit in?
Here’s the problem: I don’t know where Malloy fits into the lineup when Gleyber Torres returns.
A move to third base is apparently not in the cards for Torres, even though the Tigers love to mix and match offensive players more than anyone.
So when Torres comes back and takes over at second base, Torkelson and Colt Keith will occupy first base and designated hitter.
Malloy is a bad outfielder, and the Tigers already have Greene and Kerry Carpenter in the corners. So I don’t know where he’ll land. What I do know is they would miss his bat at the top of the order.
Buying: Dillon Dingler is a starting catcher
Jake Rogers is always going to have a prominent role on this team because of his leadership, his defensive abilities, and his management of the pitching staff.
But Dillon Dingler is proving that he belongs, as well.
At the plate, he’s got a .929 OPS with underlying metrics to back it up. He isn’t chasing or whiffing, and there’s reliable extra-base pop.
Dingler also grades out as a well above average fielder, so A.J. Hinch has basically promoted him to co-starter alongside Rogers, with the duo swapping out every other game.
The Tigers are in a good place behind the plate.
Buying: Trey Sweeney is a major leaguer
Last season, Sweeney looked like a solid defender who couldn’t hang with MLB pitching. There’s room for players like that, but in a Zack Short kind of way.
There were flashes of more, and the first 10 games of 2025 have been one of those flashes.
Sweeney plays an elite shortstop, and so far, he’s been above average at the plate, with slightly below average batted ball metrics and encouraging plate discipline.
He’ll probably be streaky and sit against lefties, but Sweeney is only 24 years old, so the positive signs we’ve seen so far this season should stand above the worries.
Worried: Colt Keith’s defense and power
I still like Colt Keith. He’s 23 years old and already showing a great understanding of the strike zone, with a 99th percentile walk rate and an 88th percentile chase rate.
The move to second base to cover for Torres’ injury hasn’t gone smoothly, though, and he’s probably going back there next year if Torkelson continues to hit. His misplay in Seattle cost the Tigers a sweep, and he had another big error Monday vs. the Yankees.
I’m also concerned about the quality of contact. Keith finished his rookie season in the 23rd and 22nd percentiles in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, respectively. So far this season, he’s in the bottom 10% for both.
Keith has drawn so many walks that he doesn’t have a ton of batted ball data to analyze, but it would be nice to see some of the power he displayed in the minors.
Buying: Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball
Tarik Skubal has a 5.91 ERA and a 5.39 xERA. He has a 1.50 WHIP, a below average strikeout rate, and a below average ground ball rate. He hasn’t been very good.
He’s starting Tuesday in terrible, freezing conditions against the dangerous Yankees lineup, and even if he gives up another five runs, I won’t be a bit worried.
Skubal is averaging 97 mph on his four-seam fastball and 97.3 mph on his sinker -- almost identical to last season. He’s getting whiffs on almost half of the swings against his change-up.
There’s nothing in Skubal’s pitch profile to be worried about. He was one mistake away from a quality start against the Dodgers, and one misplay away from a win over the Mariners.
I considered Skubal the best pitcher on the planet coming into this season, and nothing that’s happened over the first two starts should change that opinion.
Buying: Casey Mize is the best he’s ever been
Casey Mize, on the other hand, has changed my stance.
When Mize put up a few scoreless innings this spring, I was skeptical because we’ve never seen him miss bats at a high enough rate to succeed in the majors.
Through his first two outings, that has changed. Drastically.
Mize is sporting an elite 34.7% whiff rate and a 27.3% strikeout rate. His walk rate is up and his ground ball rate is down, but I expect the former to improve. If a lower ground ball rate is a consequence of more dominant stuff, the Tigers will happily take that tradeoff.
The splitter that made Mize an obvious choice atop the 2018 draft looks better than ever, generating a laughable 73.3% whiff rate. His four-seamer is averaging 94.1 mph, but more importantly, hitters are doing absolutely no damage against it.
We’ll see if Mize can keep this up for a full season, but what I can say with certainty is that the way he’s done it so far is no fluke.
Worried: Jackson Jobe might need more time
We shouldn’t be surprised that Jackson Jobe had a bumpy first couple of starts as a 22-year-old rookie.
Nobody is giving up on the game’s top pitching prospect, but he does look like a candidate to get demoted if Alex Cobb comes back.
Jobe has seven strikeouts and seven walks through nine innings and a 20.8% whiff rate. Batters aren’t hitting the ball all that hard against him, but they aren’t chasing, either.
No, Jobe isn’t the type of player who should be surviving off of balls in play. The Tigers drafted him in the first round because he has swing-and-miss stuff, and so far, that’s been absent.
One major positive is the cutter, which Jobe has thrown 30% of the time. One-third of the swings against that pitch have come up empty, and batters have a .129 xBA and .159 xSLG against it. In other words, when they do make contact, it’s weak.
All the factors that made us excited about Jobe are still there, but he might need a little more time than expected to put them all together.
Buying: Tigers have a legit closer
The Tigers survived last season without a bona fide closer. This year, they don’t have to.
Tommy Kahnle’s one-year deal during the offseason didn’t come with much fanfare, but it’s paid off so far with four scoreless innings.
Kahnle has allowed just one base runner so far (a hit batter), while featuring elite swing-and-miss stuff and inducing weak contact.
It’s no surprise that 45 of his 53 pitches in a Tigers uniform have been changeups, because that pitch is borderline unfair. Batters can’t do anything against it, and when he does mix in the occasional 93 mph fastball, it probably looks like 98.
Buying: Another Tigers masterclass with John Brebbia
Speaking of low fanfare, nobody made a peep when the Tigers added a 34-year-old reliever coming off a 5.86 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 2024, but this is looking like yet another Chris Fetter masterclass.
Brebbia has struck out four in five shutout innings so far, with only one batter reaching base. It’s a small sample, but it looks legitimate.
His fastball is generating weak contact, and the slider has a 41.7% whiff rate. That’s all Fetter needs to roll out another high-leverage bullpen arm.
Worried: Missing bats not enough for Kenta Maeda
I won’t lie: Kenta Maeda piqued my interest during spring training. He was throwing much harder, and his splitter generated whiffs at an elite rate.
He’s continued to miss bats so far in the regular season, ranking in the 82nd percentile at 33.3%. But it hasn’t been enough.
In three innings, Maeda has already served up five runs, six hits, and two walks. It’s a mixture of free passes, hard contact, and fly balls -- a deadly combination for any pitcher.
Maeda is a free agent after this season, so if he continues to struggle, the Tigers could certainly cut ties to make room for someone like Jason Foley or Andrew Chafin.