DETROIT – Is it too early for Detroit Tigers fans to turn their attention to playoff seeding?
Tigers players and coaches will never say it -- nor should they. A.J. Hinch has his team focused on winning one game at a time, not a postseason that’s more than three months away.
But fans don’t have to worry about getting mentally prepared for a 95 mph fastball every night. Feel free to scoreboard watch and check the standings as many times as you want.
AL Central standings
I know we haven’t even reached the All-Star break, but just look at the AL Central. What could have been a thrilling six-month playoff chase between four teams has turned into by far the biggest blowout in the league.
Right now, the Tigers lead both the Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins by 14 games, and the Cleveland Guardians by 15.5 games.
The second-place Royals and Twins are closer to last place (the White Sox are 27.5 back of the Tigers) than they are to first.
If that doesn’t sum up the size of this lead, nothing will.
The second-largest margin for any division leader in baseball is the 6.5 games that separate the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners in the AL West.
Anything could happen over the final 70 games, but it doesn’t get much better than this in early July.
What would it take to blow this lead?
It wouldn’t just take a hot streak by the Royals, Twins, or Guardians to erase this massive AL Central deficit. The Tigers would also have to collapse in the second half.
Detroit currently sits at 58-34 -- a season-high 24 games above .500.
Even if the Tigers finish the season a disappointing 32-38, they would end up with a 90-72 record. Here’s what their division rivals would have to do the rest of the way to reach 90 wins:
- Royals: 46-24 -- a .657 winning percentage.
- Twins: 47-25 -- .653.
- Guardians: 49-24 -- .671
- White Sox (just for fun): 60-11 -- .845.
To put that in perspective, the Tigers have the best winning percentage in baseball at .630. So not only would they have to play losing baseball out of nowhere for three months, but one of their division rivals would have to simultaneously turn into the best team in MLB.
To catch the 2025 Tigers, one of these teams would basically have to become the 2024 Tigers.
Trade deadline
It’s also worth pointing out that the Royals, Twins, and Guardians are all fading from the wild card race. They’re behind the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, and Texas Rangers.
Heck, the last-place Baltimore Orioles are only a game behind Cleveland.
So I don’t think these AL Central teams are going to be aggressively improving their rosters at the trade deadline. They’re more likely to trade away players to contenders.
If the Tigers make a couple of additions and the rest of the AL Central mails it in, the gap could get even larger.
Why seeding matters
Playoff seeding has never mattered more in MLB, because the top two division winners from each league get a first-round bye.
The Tigers know as well as anyone that the first round of the MLB playoffs are dangerous. They went to Houston and shocked the Astros last year -- and all it took was one great Tarik Skubal start and a timely hit from Andy Ibanez.
As consistent as the Tigers have been this season, they’ve lost three-game series to the Rangers, the Reds, and the Rays -- exactly the types of teams they could see in a wildcard round.
Anything can happen in three games, so the first round is best avoided.
A bye also guarantees the Tigers home field advantage in the Divisional Series. They currently have a 31-14 record at Comerica Park, so that should also be a priority.
And if they can finish with the best overall record in the American League, the Tigers would earn home field advantage in a potential Championship Series.
American League standings
At the moment, it’s a three-team race for the top two spots in the league -- and I don’t think anybody saw this trio coming:
- Tigers (58-34).
- Astros (55-36) -- 2.5 games back.
- Toronto Blue Jays (53-38) -- 4.5 games back.
It’s not the Yankees or the Red Sox in the East, or the trendy Mariners in the West. It’s the Tigers, the surging Blue Jays, and those pesky Astros.
The Yankees (8 games back) and Rays (8.5) shouldn’t yet be counted out. And the Mariners (9) are still lurking as their elite pitching staff gets back to full health.
But there’s no doubt Tigers fans should pay attention to this race, even if they haven’t stopped worrying about the AL Central.
MLB standings
By now you know that I’m not afraid to look ahead at the big picture, but even I’m not comparing the Tigers against National League teams. At least not yet.
Sure, it could determine whether the Tigers have home field advantage in the World Series, but that’s just so far away that I can’t bring myself to really care at this point.
If you’re wondering, though, the Tigers do currently have the best record in MLB. Here’s how they stack up with the top teams in the NL:
- Los Angeles Dodgers (56-36) -- 2 games behind Tigers.
- Chicago Cubs (54-36) -- 3 games behind Tigers.
- Philadelphia Phillies (53-38) -- 4.5 games behind Tigers.
- New York Mets (52-39) -- 5.5 games behind Tigers.
- Milwaukee Brewers (51-40) -- 6.5 games behind Tigers.
- San Francisco Giants (50-42) -- 8 games behind Tigers.
- San Diego Padres (48-42) -- 9 games behind Tigers.
- St. Louis Cardinals (48-43) -- 9.5 games behind Tigers.
What do you think?
Sports fans never forget the times they’ve had their hearts broken, and that’s why it can be hard to trust even a division lead this massive.
But I’m genuinely interested to see how many Tigers fans feel comfortable with this division lead. Are you already scoreboard watching teams like the Astros, Blue Jays, and Yankees?