DETROIT – Even over the course of a 162-game season, there are single moments that can change the playoff landscape.
It’s possible one of those moments happened at Comerica Park on Tuesday night.
The Tigers and Astros were locked in a 0-0 tie in the bottom of the 10th inning with the bases loaded, two outs, and a 3-2 count. Gleyber Torres stood in the batter’s box with the winning run 90 feet away and watched a sweeper fade down and away to walk it off.
A Gatorade bath. A celebration on the field. Fun times for all.
Tigers vs. Astros in AL standings
On the surface, it’s just a win in mid-August. But there’s a chance that that one pitch could essentially be worth two full games in the race for a first-round bye.
If the Tigers had lost Tuesday night’s game, they would have led the Astros by three games in the standings, and the Astros would have led the season head-to-head series 3-2.
With Houston ace Framber Valdez scheduled to pitch against Charlie Morton in the final matchup Wednesday afternoon, there’s a good chance the Astros would have clinched the head-to-head over the Tigers.
Instead, the Tigers lead the Astros by five games and have clinched at least a tie in the head-to-head department.
What this means for tiebreakers
Obviously, the Tigers are much happier leading the Astros by five games than they would have been leading by three games. But if the teams end up tied, the Tigers have also essentially clinched the better seed.
If the Tigers win on Wednesday, they finish 4-2 against the Astros and automatically have the head-to-head tiebreaker. But let’s say Valdez throws a gem and the Tigers and Astros settle for a 3-3 tie in the season series.
The next tiebreaker for playoff seeding is each team’s record against their own division -- yes, that’s the case even though they play in different divisions.
Right now, the Tigers are 24-13 against the AL Central and the Astros are 16-17 against the AL West.
The Tigers have six more games against Kansas City, six more games against Cleveland, and three more games against the White Sox. That’s a total of 15 more divisional games.
The Astros have seven more games against the Angels, six more games against the Rangers, and three games each against the Mariners and Athletics. That’s a total of 19 games.
Even if the Astros win a ridiculous number of those remaining division games, it will be tough to make up what’s essentially a six-game lead for the Tigers.
If the Astros win, let’s say, 15 of 19, the Tigers could go a modest 8-7 in their remaining division games and still win the tiebreaker.
How Blue Jays tiebreaker factors in
In the extremely unlikely event that the Tigers, Blue Jays, and Astros all finish with the same record, Tuesday’s win decreased the chance that the Tigers would be the ones to end up playing in the wildcard round.
If the Tigers would have lost the head-to-head tiebreaker against Houston, then the Astros likely would have finished with winning head-to-head records against both of the other two division leaders (they currently are 3-0 vs. Toronto).
So Houston would have gotten the top seed, and then the Tigers and Blue Jays would have been compared for the final bye, and the Tigers lost that head-to-head series 4-3.
Instead, if the Tigers, Blue Jays, and Astros finish in a three-way tie, their overall head-to-head records will be compared, and those records currently look like this:
- Houston: 5-3
- Detroit: 6-6
- Toronto: 4-6
The Astros still play the Tigers once and the Blue Jays three times, so there is a scenario where the Tigers finish in third, but it would take a loss to the Astros on Wednesday and then a Blue Jays series win vs. Houston next month.
Tigers playoff picture
Since they saw their 14-game division lead shrink to five last week, the Tigers have gotten back on course with eight wins in their past 10 games.
Now Cleveland is 9.5 back in the AL Central, and Kansas City has taken over second place at nine games back.
Detroit is in a good spot for a first-round bye, but there are still too many teams within shouting distance to fully relax.
- Tigers (75-53)
- Blue Jays (74-53) -- 0.5 games back.
- Astros (69-57) -- 5 games back.
- Yankees (68-57) -- 5.5 games back.
- Red Sox (68-59) -- 6.5 games back.
- Mariners (68-59) -- 6.5 games back.
In the National League, the Brewers are a full five games ahead of the Tigers, while the Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers are all within two games of Detroit.