DETROIT – It’s no secret that the Guardians have been the Tigers’ greatest division rival the last couple of years. In 2024, the Tigers went 6-7 against them during the regular season and ultimately fell to them after a hard-fought 5-game division series.
The Tigers are 4-3 against the Guardians in 2025. They swept the last series when the two teams met back in July.
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Six games remain between the Tigers and the Guardians this season, and the Tigers currently have a 6.5 game lead in the division. The remaining two series with the Guardians will go a long way in deciding the AL Central Division.
Here is how things could shake out this week.
Scenario 1: Tigers sweep
The best case scenario, if the Tigers sweep the Guardians, their record would be 88-65, and the Tigers’ magic number (to win the division) would be down to 1.
But because the Tigers will have locked up the head-to-head season series against Cleveland, they would actually clinch the division title because the best the Guardians could do is tie.
Scenario 2: Tigers win 2 games
The second-best case scenario, if the Tigers take 2 out of 3 to the Guardians and walk away with a series win, their record would be 87-66, and their magic number would be 3.
Scenario 3: Tigers win 1 game
If the Tigers only win one game of the upcoming series, their record would be 86-66, and their magic number would be 5.
Scenario 4: Tigers get swept
If the Guardians were to sweep the Tigers, the Tigers’ record would be 85-68, and their magic number would remain at 7.
The Guardians would leave Detroit only 3.5 back in the division, and they have four games against the struggling Twins on deck.
What did the Tigers do last series vs. Guardians to have success?
- Bullpen pitched 9.2 innings, and only surrendered 2 runs, 1 earned.
- Mize’s four-seam fastball was excellent, and he threw it 45% of the time, inducing five whiffs. He used his splitter 30% of the time.
What will be the Tigers’ keys to success in the upcoming series?
- Strong starts from Mize, Flaherty, and Skubal.
- Strong defense.
- Timely two-out hits.
- Good swing decisions and patience at the plate.
What to know about the Cleveland Guardians
- RP Emmanuel Clase is out for gambling allegations.
- OF Lane Thomas is on the 10-day IL for a foot injury.
- SP Joey Cantillo has a 2.52 ERA in his last 39.1 innings pitched.
- Cleveland is 9-1 in their last 10 games.
Pitching probables:
Game 1 - Casey Mize (14-5, 3.83 ERA) vs. Joey Cantillo (5-3, 3.36 ERA)
- Mize 1-1 with 2.30 ERA in last 5 games vs. Cleveland.
Game 2 – Jack Flaherty (8-13, 4.69 ERA) vs. TBD
- Flaherty 2-3, 2.57 ERA vs. Cleveland in his career.
Game 3 – Tarik Skubal (13-4, 2.10 ERA) vs. TBD
- Skubal 3-3, 2.57 ERA in last 10 games vs. Cleveland.