DETROIT – The Detroit Tigers are on the cusp of one of the worst collapses in the 150-year history of Major League Baseball.
What was once a 15.5-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians in the American League Central Division has shrunk to one. The Guardians ripped off 15 wins in their last 17 games while the Tigers have suddenly lost nine of 10.
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So with six games left in the regular season, a playoff appearance that looked like a formality is now very much in doubt.
What Tigers have to do to make playoffs
If the Tigers want to make the playoffs, they’re almost certainly going to have to win two out of three both in Cleveland and in Boston this week.
Heading into the series at Cleveland, the Tigers lead the Guardians by one game in the standings. But really, they have to look at it as if the division is tied.
That’s because with their sweep of the Tigers in Detroit last week, the Guardians took a two-game lead in the head-to-head. So unless the Tigers sweep the Guardians in Cleveland, the Guardians will own the tiebreaker at the end of the season.
If the Guardians take two out of three games, the division will be tied and they will own the tiebreaker. Going into the last series of the year, the Tigers would essentially be toast.
The reason: Cleveland gets to finish the season against the Texas Rangers, who will be eliminated by the time that series begins. Texas is currently five games behind both Cleveland and Houston with six games to play (and Houston holds the tiebreaker).
So the Guardians will play a home series against a team that just wants to get to the offseason, while the Tigers hit the road to play a team very much fighting for its playoff life.
How the math works
If the Tigers take two out of three in Cleveland, they’ll leave town with a two-game lead over the Guardians.
That means even if Cleveland sweeps Texas, the Tigers would clinch the AL Central with two wins in Boston.
What about the wildcard?
Technically, the Tigers could lose the AL Central and still get one of the wildcard spots. But that feels unlikely.
If the Tigers don’t win the Central, it probably means they lost the series in Cleveland, which would give them a record of either 86-73 or 85-74.
The Astros are only one game behind the Tigers and get to play the Athletics and Angels in the final two series of the season -- albeit both on the road. Luckily the Tigers did clinch the season series over the Astros, so they would get in if the two teams are tied.
But for a team that spent most of the last six months fighting for the No. 1 seed in the American League, the Tigers are in a very dangerous spot. Any thoughts of a first-round bye are gone, and now they’re just trying to scratch and claw their way out of one of the biggest free falls in baseball history.