Detroit Tigers playoff scenarios: How they can win division, play Yankees, Blue Jays, Guardians

DETROIT – The Detroit Tigers are going back to the playoffs for the second year in a row. That much is certain.

But who they’ll play in the wildcard round, and where -- that is still very much undecided.

There are four possible outcomes depending on what happens on the final day of the regular season Sunday:

1. Tigers win the AL Central Division and host Cleveland Guardians at home.
2. Tigers get No. 6 seed and play at Cleveland Guardians.
3. Tigers get No. 5 seed and play at New York Yankees.
4. Tigers get No. 5 seed and play at Toronto Blue Jays.

Here’s how each of these scenarios can play out.

How Tigers can win AL Central Division

• Tigers must beat Red Sox.
• Rangers must beat Guardians.

There’s only one way the Tigers can win the AL Central: They have to beat the Red Sox on Sunday, and Cleveland also has to lose to the Texas Rangers.

If both of those results happen, the Tigers will win the Central and earn the No. 3 seed in the American League.

This is the only way the Tigers will get to host the wildcard round.

Cleveland would be the No. 6 seed in this scenario and head to Detroit for that best-of-three series.

How Tigers can get No. 6 seed and play in Cleveland

• Red Sox must beat Tigers

If the Tigers lose to the Red Sox on Sunday, they’ll be locked into the final wildcard spot, and Cleveland will win the AL Central no matter what happens in the Rangers-Guardians game.

That means the Guardians would be the No. 3 seed as the worst division winner, so the Tigers would head right back to Cleveland for the best-of-three series.

How Tigers can get No. 5 seed and play Yankees

• Tigers must beat Red Sox.
• Guardians must beat Rangers.
• Blue Jays must beat Rays OR Orioles must beat Yankees (or both).

If the Tigers beat the Red Sox on Sunday, both the Tigers and Red Sox will finish with a record of 88-74.

Detroit has won four of the first five head-to-head matchups, which means it owns the tiebreaker over Boston.

So the Red Sox would drop to the No. 6 seed and head to Cleveland for the wildcard round, while the Tigers would get the No. 5 seed and hit the road to play whoever gets the top wildcard spot (No. 4 seed).

Right now, the Blue Jays and Yankees are tied for the AL East lead. The division winner will be decided on Sunday.

Toronto owns the tiebreaker over New York, so a Blue Jays win, a Yankees loss, or both would give the Blue Jays the No. 1 seed in the AL, with the Yankees getting the top wildcard spot.

So the Tigers would head to New York for the best-of-three first round.

Detroit went 4-2 against the Yankees this season, winning two out of three in both meetings.

How Tigers can get No. 5 seed and play Blue Jays

• Tigers must beat Red Sox.
• Guardians must beat Rangers.
• Rays must beat Blue Jays.
• Yankees must beat Orioles.

If all four of these outcomes happen, the Tigers will get the No. 5 seed and play the No. 4 Blue Jays in Toronto.

The reasoning is the same as the scenario above. The Guardians would win the AL Central and host the No. 6 seed Red Sox.

Meanwhile, the Yankees would pass the Blue Jays by a game to win the AL East and get the No. 1 seed in the AL. The Blue Jays would get the top wildcard spot.

Detroit went 3-4 against the Blue Jays this season, winning two out of three in Toronto in May and then losing three of four in Detroit right after the All-Star break.