DETROIT – Maybe it’s because of the Super Bowl. Or the distraction of Tarik Skubal’s arbitration. Or because this winter has been so miserable that nobody realizes baseball is right around the corner.
I don’t really know why Detroit Tigers fans aren’t more excited about the blockbuster Framber Valdez signing. But I’m here to try to change that.
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Lukewarm response to signing
When the news broke that the Tigers landed Valdez, these are some of the messages I got from the baseball fans in my life:
- “Why not just give Skubal that money?”
- “Well the Tigers certainly are not extending Skubal now.”
- “On the same day you argue arbitration for Skubal you give another guy $38 million a year?”
To be fair, they were also excited about Valdez. But it was funny that the initial reaction to the Tigers signing the best free agent pitcher was to make it about Skubal.
I get it: The move was reported the very same day as Skubal’s arbitration hearing. But to me, the two things are unrelated (more on that later).
My first reaction was, “Wow, the Tigers have two aces this season.” And then, “So they really are willing to spend money!”
We’ve been waiting a decade to see the Tigers do something like this in free agency. Scott Harris has talked the talk and insisted that when the time came to make a splash, Chris Ilitch would provide the resources. Well, this is an example of walking the walk.
How good is Framber Valdez?
Over the past four seasons, Valdez has been one of the best starting pitchers in the sport. And he’s done it for a Houston Astros team that’s always in World Series contention.
In 2025, Valdez posted a 3.66 ERA, 3.79 expected ERA, and 1.25 WHIP while striking out 187 batters in 192 innings. And it was by far his worst season of the past four years -- he was coming off back-to-back-to-back top-10 AL Cy Young finishes.
Since the start of 2022, Valdez has thrown 767.2 innings while maintaining a 3.21 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.29 FIP, and 8.8 strikeouts per nine. He’s been remarkably consistent and durable.
During that span, here’s how Valdez ranks in some major pitching categories:
- First with 57 wins.
- Second with 83 quality starts.
- Second with 767.2 innings pitched.
- Second with 2.85 ground balls per fly ball.
- Fifth with 16.5 fWAR.
- Sixth with 750 strikeouts.
- 12th with a 3.21 ERA (minimum 400 innings).
- 32nd with a 1.16 WHIP (minimum 400 innings).
Get to know Framber Valdez
Valdez is an above-average strikeout pitcher, largely because of a curveball that’s generated 43.7% and 39.8% whiff rates over the past two seasons. His change-up is a decent swing-and-miss pitch -- an excellent 35.4% whiff rate in 2024 that dropped to 28.7% in 2025.
But Valdez’s bread and butter is getting ground balls with a 94 mph sinker. Over the past five years, he’s ranked in the 97th, 99th, 91st, 100th, and 100th percentiles (in order from 2025 to 2021) for ground ball rate.
Even though Valdez does give up hard contact on balls in play, the fact that 60% of that contact comes on the ground means the damage is limited.
That ability to keep the ball on the ground, combined with a swing-and-miss curveball, makes Valdez one of the nastiest starters in the league.
Here’s a look at how Valdez ranks among this year’s free agent starting pitchers in terms of WAR over the past four seasons:
- Framber Valdez (Tigers): 14.9 WAR
- Dylan Cease (Blue Jays): 13.8 WAR
- Zac Gallen (unsigned): 13.4 WAR
- Ranger Suarez (Red Sox): 12.1 WAR
- Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks): 11.7 WAR
- Michael King (Padres): 10.4 WAR
- Nick Martinez (Rays): 9.2 WAR
- Chris Bassitt (unsigned): 7.8 WAR
It’s mostly sinker-curveball, with the change-up as a third offering.
Tigers rotation this season
Barring any more drastic moves, like trading Skubal (unlikely) or signing another high-profile starter (even less likely), the Tigers’ starting rotation should look something like this going into spring training:
- Tarik Skubal (LHP)
- Framber Valdez (LHP)
- Reese Olson (RHP)
- Jack Flaherty (RHP)
- Casey Mize (RHP)
You can debate the order of Nos. 3-5 or make arguments for Drew Anderson, Troy Melton, and Jackson Jobe (when he returns from injury). But this is how I would line up the rotation as of today.
There aren’t many teams that can match a Skubal-Valdez one-two punch. Think about a potential best-of-three wildcard series. The Tigers would have an advantage against anyone but Seattle and Boston.
This also takes a ton of pressure off the likes of Olson, Mize, and Melton. Instead of feeling like the Tigers are hoping for best-case scenarios at the 2-5 slots, now it feels like they’re above-average at every level.
Detroit is also building quality depth -- fans know all-too-well how important that can be after the rotation was decimated by injuries the past two years.
Melton and Keider Montero have proven to be capable (or better, in Melton’s case) replacements. Anderson was signed as a starter after posting a 2.91 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 12.6 K/9 over 287.1 innings in Korea the last two seasons.
The Tigers have also stacked up enough arms that they can afford to be cautious with Jobe when he returns from Tommy John surgery. That’s an important luxury for his long-term trajectory.
Detroit has built the kind of starting pitching depth that the best organizations in the game target. And on paper, this rotation stacks up with anyone.
Postseason experience
Let’s say 2026 is the last season for Skubal in a Tigers uniform -- something I think most fans expect.
Valdez gives the Tigers a true ace to help soften that blow in 2027. He’s certainly good enough to justify starting in Game 1 of a playoff series or running out there on Opening Day.
From 2020-2022, Valdez made 13 appearances in playoff games for the Astros, striking out 75 batters in 68.2 innings while posting a 3.41 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
The 2023 and 2024 postseasons weren’t nearly as kind to him, as he allowed 15 earned runs in 16.1 innings -- an 8.27 ERA.
But the “good” Valdez postseason sample size is much larger than the “bad.” During the 2022 World Series, Valdez made two starts for the Astros and won both, pitching a total of 12.1 innings and allowing just six hits, five walks, and two runs while striking out 18 batters.
He’s pitched on the sport’s biggest stage, and he’s done so successfully. That’s a bonus for the Tigers in 2026 and beyond.
What’s the catch?
Performance isn’t much of a concern for Valdez because even if all he does is repeat his 2025 campaign (his worst full season as a starter), he would be a high-end No. 2 starting pitcher.
I’m not really worried about age, either. Even if Valdez opts into the third and final year of his deal with the Tigers, he would only be 34 years old. You wouldn’t typically expect a massive drop-off over the next three years, especially for a sinker baller.
Even in a worst-case scenario, if MLB loses the 2027 season due to CBA negotiations, Valdez would be 35 in his final year with Detroit. Not disastrous.
There is one thing, though. Valdez was at the center of some controversy last season. And it was not a good look.
If you’re not familiar with what happened, Valdez lost his cool during a Sept. 2 loss to the New York Yankees in Houston.
It was the fifth inning of an eventual 7-1 loss. The Yankees already led 2-0 and Trent Grisham was batting with the bases loaded and two outs.
Right before Valdez started to wind up for a 1-0 pitch, his catcher, Cesar Salazar, appeared to motion for Valdez to step off the rubber -- either to rethink their pitch choice or because the pitch timer had ticked down to 2 seconds.
For context, Salazar is a minor-league catcher who was called up to the Astros as an injury fill-in. He was playing his 10th (and final) game with the Astros last season and only the 36th game of his MLB career.
Instead of stepping off, Valdez went into his windup and threw a sinker right down the pipe. Grisham popped it over the Crawford boxes in left field for a grand slam that made it 6-0.
On the second pitch of the next at-bat, Valdez threw a 93 mph sinker that drilled Salazar around the stomach area of his chest protector.
Pitchers and catchers don’t get crossed up very often anymore because of PitchCom, but it’s not unheard of. What is unheard of is the way Valdez reacted.
Valdez didn’t flinch or put his hands up or go talk to Salazar to solve the mix-up. He turned his back, walked a few steps behind the rubber, and then gestured for a new baseball.
Salazar’s reaction to the sinker made it clear he was expecting off-speed -- almost certainly Valdez’s curveball, which averages about 15 mph slower than his sinker.
Salazar could have gotten hurt. And this is a guy who’s making a minor-league salary for most of the season, just trying to grind his way up to the big leagues.
Valdez denied throwing at Salazar on purpose, but most of the baseball universe is agreed about what happened.
So let’s tie this back to the Tigers. Is it a concern?
In short: I don’t think so.
The Tigers are uniquely equipped to take on someone like Valdez because they have a strong, well-respected, veteran manager. Oh yeah, and that manager is a former catcher who has coached Valdez before.
A.J. Hinch was the manager of the Astros when Valdez made his MLB debut as a 24-year-old in 2018, and also when Valdez made 26 appearances in 2019.
Since Hinch arrived in Detroit in 2021, he’s not only won a bunch of games, he’s also masterfully handled the locker room.
Remember the Javier Baez base running error in Toronto in 2023? Hinch benched him, handled the issue in-house, and moved on. There was no drama.
Hinch has been a steadying force for the Tigers whether they’re playing like the best team in the league (first half last year) or going through a massive slump (September).
There’s little doubt he can handle Valdez, especially with the help of established leaders in the locker room like Baez, Skubal, Flaherty, Gleyber Torres, and others.
If you have a strong culture, individuals who join acclimate to that culture, not the other way around. I expect that will happen here.
Final thoughts
I’ll admit, it was ironic that on the day they fought against paying the best pitcher in baseball $32 million, the Tigers willingly gave $38 million to, like, the 15th-best pitcher in baseball.
But that’s how the financial structure of this sport works. Valdez was a free agent, and the Tigers were bidding against other teams. For Skubal, they weren’t in danger of losing him to someone else.
Don’t worry: He’ll get more than $38 million per year next offseason.
For now, the result is that the Tigers are a much better and deeper team than they were pre-Valdez.
No, I don’t think the Tigers have fixed an offense that bottomed out at the end of 2025 and caused them to cough up the division title. Alex Bregman would have been a perfect fit. Eugenio Suarez would have been a cheap upgrade.
But the starting rotation and bullpen have been fortified with the additions of Valdez, Anderson, Kenley Jansen, and Kyle Finnegan.
So if the Tigers can get some improvement from young players like Colt Keith and Dillon Dingler, better health from Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling, and rookie contributions from Kevin McGonigle and Max Anderson, I could see a scenario where this team contends for a World Series.
The Central Division is still completely up for grabs, and only the Mariners and Blue Jays have clearly better rosters than the Tigers in the AL.
Three years ago, the Tigers were mired in a decade-long slump. Two years ago, they were hoping for a resurgence. Last year, they wanted to be a playoff team again.
Now, they’re entering 2026 with a very clear expectation to win the AL Central and advance past the ALDS. And while the offense is still a major question mark over 162 games, the pitching staff is built to win in October.