DETROIT – Another round of possible severe weather is returning to Metro Detroit on Tuesday, with a risk of thunderstorms, hail, flooding, and tornadoes.
The main window for severe weather on Tuesday is from 8 p.m. to around 11 p.m. or midnight.
Tornado risk
Last week, parts of Michigan saw deadly tornadoes touch down while they were under a marginal (Level 1) risk for severe weather.
On Tuesday, March 10, Southeast Michigan is under a slight (Level 2) risk for severe weather. A portion of Southwest Michigan is under a Level 3 risk.
For context, a Level 1 risk equates to a 2% chance of a tornado touchdown. A Level 2 risk means a 5% chance, and a Level 3 means a 10% chance.
The area of Southeast Michigan that has the primary risk is from Detroit and southward.
Around 8 p.m., ahead of the main line of storms, is the time to start paying attention to the possibility of super cells forming.
The severe threat is lasting into the late night hours because of a warm front that’s draped across Michigan, creating a temperature contract with the colder conditions to our north.
Damaging winds
Even if there isn’t a tornado, the straight-line winds could also be dangerous.
Gusts for straight line winds could get up to 60 mph on Tuesday night.
Hail threat
Hail is another possible hazard on Tuesday night, but the other threats are considered greater as of Tuesday morning.
Winter weather advisory
Meanwhile, a winter weather advisory is scheduled to trigger at 10 p.m. Tuesday in Saginaw. That will last into Wednesday morning.
With high temperatures in the 60s for Metro Detroit on Tuesday, the contrast with that much colder air just to the north is helping to create the severe weather threat.
Second round of storms Wednesday morning?
A second round of potentially severe weather is possible on Wednesday morning -- possibly from around 8-11 a.m.
That round of storms appears to be weaker, but there is potential for them to be borderline severe. The strength of the first round of storms could also affect how much strength is left for Wednesday morning’s risk.
Flooding concerns
Since there’s a chance of multiple rounds of severe weather -- both that could come with heavy rainfall -- flooding is also a possible concern.
More on the timeline
While the overall window for severe weather appears to be around 8 p.m. Tuesday to around 11 p.m. or midnight, that timing really depends on whether the super cells develop ahead of the line of storms.
If they do develop, they could use up much of the energy from the storm threat and decrease the length of the severe risk.