DETROIT – Strong to severe storm chances are returning to Metro Detroit, and they’re bringing a risk of tornadoes, large hail, and flooding.
This forecast saw a big shift overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, so stay with Local 4 over the next 24 hours as we monitor possible changes in the timeline and risks.
Severe weather timeline
Temperatures will rise to the 50s and 60s on Wednesday and Thursday, and the severe storm chances are later in the day Thursday.
We’ll start to see some showers around 4-5 p.m. Thursday, and there’s a chance of a storm or two around that time, as well.
The primary window for strong storms is at 7 p.m. Thursday and onward.
By 9 or 10 p.m. Thursday, most of the storms will have moved out of the area, and there will be a sharp decline in temperatures overnight.
The highs on Friday are only around 40 degrees -- so that could be about a 30-degree drop from the highs Thursday to Friday.
Severe weather threats
A Level 1 (marginal) risk for severe weather is in effect Thursday north of I-696 and toward I-69.
From I-696 southward into Ohio, there is a Level 2 (slight) risk of severe weather on Thursday.
Tornado risk
Southeast Michigan has a risk for very damaging tornadoes on Thursday, so have a plan in place for your family at work, school, and home.
A line of strong and severe storms develops later in the day as a sharp decline in temperatures looms Friday. Those storms come with the risk of tornadoes.
The marginal to slight risk across the area means there’s a chance that tornadoes could reach EF-2 strength or greater. That comes with wind speeds of 111 mph or stronger.
If that happens, these tornadoes wouldn’t be the quick spin-ups we’re used to in Southeast Michigan. An EF-2 tornado could damage homes, tear apart mobile homes, and snap large trees in half.
Hail risk
One of the other primary risks Thursday is the potential for large, damaging hail.
Everyone in Southeast Michigan has a significant hail risk, which comes with a chance of large hail.
We could see hail that reaches the size of golf balls or tennis balls. That’s not a guarantee, but the atmospheric conditions are there for that potential.
What happens is super cooled water droplets go up in the clouds and then bounce up and down and become frozen. The longer they stay in the cloud, the bigger they get, until the updraft weakens and they fall.
Hail is expected to develop in pockets around Southeast Michigan, so not everybody will see large hail. But there could be some storms that develop in spots and create it.
The wind threat is more downstream of here, so our area gets more of the hail threat, while Ohio gets more of the wind threat.
If you can park your car inside or under a car port, that would be best for Thursday.
Flash flooding risk
There’s a very low-end threat for flash flooding on Thursday.
The threat is lower because while there will be isolated downpours, but we don’t anticipate an abundance of rain to lead to that flash flooding concern.
Strong wind risk
There’s a risk for strong winds beyond tornadoes, but hail and tornadoes appear to be the more significant threats on Thursday. That’s because of the significance of the possible threats, not necessarily that they will be widespread.