What final CFP top 4 should be for every possible win/loss combination from Michigan, Georgia, TCU, USC

Ohio State lurking at No. 5 despite blowout loss to Michigan

Michigan, Georgia, TCU, and USC control their own College Football Playoff destinies heading into conference championship weekend. (2022 Getty Images)

ANN ARBOR, Mich. – The order of the final College Football Playoff rankings depends entirely on how Michigan, Georgia, TCU, and USC fare in their conference championship games this weekend.

Michigan and Georgia are heavy favorites against Purdue and LSU, respectively, but both have had close calls against lesser teams this season. TCU and USC are both favored by only a few points against Kansas State and Utah, respectively, so those games are tossups.

Any combination of those four teams winning and/or losing is possible. But what would the resulting top four look like in those scenarios?

Remember, the CFP committee ranked Ohio State No. 5 in Tuesday’s penultimate poll. That means the Buckeyes are still alive if the right chips fall over the weekend.

NOTE: These predictions are made under the assumption that if TCU or USC lose, the games will be competitive. A blowout loss could cause the committee to drop them further.

Here are my best guesses for every possible scenario:

Michigan, Georgia, TCU, and USC all win

  1. Georgia (13-0)
  2. Michigan (13-0)
  3. TCU (13-0)
  4. USC (12-1)

Michigan, Georgia, and TCU win -- USC loses

  1. Georgia (13-0)
  2. Michigan (13-0)
  3. TCU (13-0)
  4. Ohio State (11-1)

Michigan, Georgia, and USC win -- TCU loses

  1. Georgia (13-0)
  2. Michigan (13-0)
  3. USC (12-1)
  4. TCU (12-1)

Michigan, TCU, and USC win -- Georgia loses

  1. Michigan (13-0)
  2. TCU (13-0)
  3. Georgia (12-1)
  4. USC (12-1)

Georgia, TCU, and USC win -- Michigan loses

  1. Georgia (13-0)
  2. TCU (13-0)
  3. USC (12-1)
  4. Michigan (12-1)

Michigan and Georgia win -- TCU and USC lose

  1. Georgia (13-0)
  2. Michigan (13-0)
  3. TCU (12-1)
  4. Ohio State (11-1)

Michigan and TCU win -- Georgia and USC lose

  1. Michigan (13-0)
  2. TCU (13-0)
  3. Georgia (12-1)
  4. Ohio State (11-1)

Michigan and USC win -- Georgia and TCU lose

  1. Michigan (13-0)
  2. Georgia (12-1)
  3. USC (12-1)
  4. TCU (12-1)

Georgia and TCU win -- Michigan and USC lose

  1. Georgia (13-0)
  2. TCU (13-0)
  3. Michigan (12-1)
  4. Ohio State (11-1)

Georgia and USC win -- Michigan and TCU lose

  1. Georgia (13-0)
  2. USC (12-1)
  3. Michigan (12-1)
  4. TCU (12-1)

TCU and USC win -- Michigan and Georgia lose

  1. TCU (13-0)
  2. Georgia (12-1)
  3. USC (12-1)
  4. Michigan (12-1)

Michigan wins -- Georgia, TCU, and USC lose

  1. Michigan (13-0)
  2. Georgia (12-1)
  3. TCU (12-1)
  4. Ohio State (11-1)

Georgia wins -- Michigan, TCU, and USC lose

  1. Georgia (13-0)
  2. Michigan (12-1)
  3. TCU (12-1)
  4. Ohio State (11-1)

TCU wins -- Michigan, Georgia, and USC lose

  1. TCU (13-0)
  2. Georgia (12-1)
  3. Michigan (12-1)
  4. Ohio State (11-1)

USC wins -- Michigan, Georgia, and TCU lose

  1. Georgia (12-1)
  2. USC (12-1)
  3. Michigan (12-1)
  4. TCU (12-1)

Michigan, Georgia, TCU, and USC all lose

  1. Georgia (12-1)
  2. Michigan (12-1)
  3. TCU (12-1)
  4. Ohio State (11-1)

About the Author:

Derick is the Lead Digital Editor for ClickOnDetroit and has been with Local 4 News since April 2013. Derick specializes in breaking news, crime and local sports.