Showers, thunderstorms expected to hit SE Michigan Thursday -- What to know

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon and evening in Metro Detroit.

A 4Warn Weather Alert was issued for the afternoon and evening of March 26 due to the threat of severe storms across Southeast Michigan.

Latest forecast --> A warmer Wednesday across Metro Detroit before severe weather threat arrives Thursday

Here’s what to expect:

Timeframe

3 p.m. to 9 p.m. is the wide window, but latest model data is trending to pull the more widespread severe threat through between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m.

Where storms will hit

There is still uncertainty as to how far north the instability will reach. From I-696/I-96 south, there is a slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe weather. A marginal (level 1) risk is from I-696 to around I-69.

Damaging winds, tornado probabilities

All threats are on the table, but hail and tornadoes will be the most significant.

• Hail: Conditions will be favorable for large hail (up to 2 inch/tennis ball-sized) even in the marginal risk area.
• Wind: Damaging wind potential will be little greater closer to the Ohio state line. However, most of the area will be at risk for isolated damaging wind gusts greater than 60 mph.
• Tornadoes: Tornado probabilities are a little higher in our southern communities, but isolated strong (EF-2+) tornadoes are not out of the question across much of Southeast Michigan.
• Flooding: Heavy downpours are possible, but flash flood risk remains low.