Poll: Where Michigan voters stand on governor candidates, abortion

Survey finds abortion, women’s rights motivating Michigan voters ahead of Nov. election

Michigan voters are feeling motivated to vote in the upcoming gubernatorial election, and one of the major issues driving that motivation is abortion and women’s rights, according to a new WDIV/Detroit News poll.

A survey conducted between Aug. 29 and Sept. 1 found that a majority of Michiganders approve of the job being done by Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is currently favored to win against Republican candidate Tudor Dixon. Voter motivation has also seen an increase across all parties heading into the Nov. 8 election, with abortion and women’s rights taking center stage as the primary motivating issue following the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

The poll also examined approval ratings for President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, among other things.

Here are some of the key findings from this portion of the survey:

Voter motivation increases

  • On a 10-point scale, Michigan voters have a 9.3 voter motivation score -- which is up from 9.2 in July.
  • Voter motivation is slightly higher among Democratic voters. Those who identify as “strong Democratic” have a 9.5 voter motivation score. Voters who lean Democratic have a score of 9.3.
  • Independent voters received a score of 8.8.
  • Voters who identify as “strong Republican” have a 9.3 voter motivation score. Voters who lean Republican also received a 9.3.
  • Voter motivation increased again among voters between 18-29 years old, reaching 8.5 in September, compared to 8.4 in July and 7.9 in January.

Gov. Whitmer approval rating

  • The incumbent governor has an approval rating of 54%.
    • Those identifying as “strong Democratic” and those who lean Democratic have high favorability ratings -- 88.6% and 89.3%, respectively -- for Whitmer.
    • Those identifying as “strong Republican” had a 3.4% favorability rating for Whitmer, while those leaning Republican has a 14% favorability for the governor.
    • About 45.3% of Independent voters view Whitmer favorably.
  • Whitmer’s 54% job approval has remained consistent throughout the year with few fluctuations (54%-56%). Whitmer’s job disapproval has slightly declined in 2022.

Whitmer leading Dixon by 13 points

  • Whitmer continues to hold a lead against Republican opponent Dixon for the 2022 election. She is currently estimated to win about 48% of the vote.
  • Whitmer is more popular among voters who are “strong Democratic” (94.3%) and those who lean Democratic (89.3%), but she is also securing 43% of the Independent vote, as well as 10% of voters who lean Republican.
  • Dixon’s hold among voters has decreased since July. As of September, the candidate is expected to win about 34.9% of the vote, compared to the 40.3% she held in July.
  • Dixon is most popular among “strong Republican” voters, securing 81.3% of their vote so far, and is expected to win 62% of the vote from those who lean Republican. About 19.6% of Independent voters favor Dixon.
  • Whitmer is leading among female voters by a 2-1 margin with a 26.7% lead against Dixon.
  • About 4% of voters have moved to a third-party candidate, with a few listed on the ballot.

Dixon approval ratings

  • Dixon’s name identification increased by 40.7% between July and September -- but issues still remain for the candidate.
  • 22% of Michigan voters view Dixon favorably, compared to 35.6% of voters who view her unfavorably.
  • 21.5% of Michigan voters have “no opinion” of Dixon, while 20% of voters have “never heard of” Dixon.
  • Dixon has highest favorability among “strong Republican” voters, with 47.7% of them viewing her favorably. 36% of leaning Republicans also view her favorably. Notably, 11.9% of Republican voters view her unfavorably, as do 18% of leaning Republican voters.
  • Dixon has the lowest favorability among Democratic voters, with 64.2% of “strong Democratic” voters viewing her unfavorably, and 55.4% of leaning Democratic voters viewing her unfavorably.

Abortion, women’s rights take center stage

  • When asked which issue would most motivate a Michigan voter to vote this fall, the majority of respondents -- 34.4% -- said abortion and women’s rights. Other options included inflation and the cost of living; jobs and the economy; threats to our democracy; crime and violence; and education.
  • Female voters cited abortion as the primary driver of their motivation, but male voters did not. The poll found 43.5% of female voters care most about abortion and women’s rights issues, while just 24.6% of male voters do.
    • Male voters tend to care more about inflation, with 30.8% choosing inflation and the cost of living as their primary motivator. 20.6% of female voters selected inflation.
  • Abortion is primarily a motivating factor among Democratic voters, with only some Republican voters showing strong voter motivation due to abortion.
    • Abortion is a motivating factor for 58% of voters who identify as “strong Democratic,” and for 48.2% of voters who lean Democratic.
    • Abortion is a motivating factor for 15.3% of voters who identify as “strong Republican,” and for, notably, 22% of voters who lean Republican.
    • About 28.9% of Independent voters listed abortion as a strong motivating factor.
  • 57.6% of Michigan voters disagreed with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, while 32.6% of voters agreed with it. About 6.3% of voters were neutral, and 3.5% of voters were undecided.
    • Whitmer is winning over 75% of voters who oppose overturning Roe v. Wade, compared with Dixon’s 12.4%.
    • Dixon is winning 74.1% of voters who support overturning Roe v. Wade, compared with Whitmer’s 8.1%.
  • Of interesting note: Non-college women have “sharply left the GOP” over the overturning of Roe, the poll finds. Whitmer now leads against Dixon among non-college women by 29.8%, and college women by 22.9% -- of which both groups say they strongly oppose the Roe decision.
    • “In the past three cycles, voter education levels have meant a large split in voter preferences with non-college voters shifting sharply to Republicans and college voters shifting to Democrats,” the poll results read. “But the overturn of Roe v. Wade has thus far upended this traditional education split.”

Note: The latest WDIV/Detroit News poll did not poll voters on the exact language of a potential abortion rights ballot proposal that may appear on the Nov. ballot. It is currently unclear if that proposal will be certified to appear on the upcoming ballot. The survey asked Michigan voters more generally about the idea of a constitutional amendment on abortion.

Future of Michigan outlook

  • Michigan voters largely feel that both the state and the nation are on the wrong track.
  • As of September, 72% of Michigan voters feel the nation is on the wrong track, compared to 17.4% who feel it is on the right track.
    • These numbers are consistent with July’s numbers.
  • 48.5% of Michigan voters believe the state is on the wrong track, compared to 33.8% who feel it is on the right track.
    • These numbers have been consistent for the past year.

Biden/Trump ratings

  • Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump have low favorability ratings among Michigan voters.
    • 53.5% of Michigan voters view Biden unfavorably, while 33.9% of voters view him favorably.
      • 11.6% of voters have “no opinion” of Biden.
    • 56.1% of Michigan voters view Trump unfavorably, while 34.8% view him favorably.

Methodology

The Glengariff Group, Inc. conducted a Michigan statewide survey of November 2022 likely general election voters. The 600 sample, live operator telephone survey was conducted on August 29-September 1, 2022 and has a margin of error of +/-4.0% with a 95% level of confidence. 28.0% of respondents were contacted via landline telephone. 72.0% of respondents were contacted via cell phone telephone. This survey was commissioned by WDIV Local 4 News and the Detroit News.


See the poll results from July right here to compare.


About the Author:

Cassidy Johncox is a senior digital news editor covering stories across the spectrum, with a special focus on politics and community issues.