DETROIT – I can’t believe we’re having this conversation less than a week after the All-Star break, but could the Detroit Tigers really blow what was once an enormous division lead?
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Massive lead cut in half
Just 10 games ago, the Tigers were riding a five-game winning streak and had a 14-game lead in the American League Central Division.
They had just swept the Guardians in Cleveland, capped by a devastating six-run 10th inning that handed the Guards their 10th-straight loss.
Cleveland trailed the Tigers by 15.5 games. I think most of us had turned our attention to the race for the top seed in the American League.
Well, it’s time to hit the brakes on that.
Since then, the Tigers have been the worst team in baseball, losing nine of 10 games and getting outscored 66-26. And it’s not just that they’re losing -- it’s the way they’re losing.
The Tigers lost the final game of the Rays series 7-3, which is fine considering they had already won the first two games. But then Seattle came to town and scored 35 runs in three games.
OK, yeah, that was a little concerning. But the Tigers were probably just looking ahead to the All-Star Game, right? No biggie.
Wrong again. The Tigers have come out of the break with five losses in six games, including a three-game sweep at the hands of the lowly Pirates. Sure, you can live with losing to Paul Skenes, but an 8-5 loss with Casey Mize on the mound? And a 6-1 loss to Bailey Falter?
Yikes. There might actually be some cause for concern.
Meanwhile, since their 10-game losing streak, the Guardians have found life out of nowhere. They swept the first-place Astros on the road, took three of four from the White Sox, and have won five of six since the break.
Incredibly, that 15.5-game lead has shrunk to just eight.
Upcoming schedule
If you’d asked in the spring, Tigers fans gladly would have signed up for an eight-game lead near the end of July. But the upcoming schedule doesn’t get any easier.
First, the Tigers will host the AL-leading Blue Jays for four games at Comerica Park. Toronto has won five of six since the break and 16 of 20 since June 29.
The Diamondbacks are no pushover next week, and then the Tigers hit the road for a three-game series against the playoff-bound Phillies, who are lined up to throw Ranger Suarez, Zack Wheeler, and Cristopher Sanchez against Detroit.
During that stretch, Cleveland gets another game against last-place Baltimore before a trip to Kansas City. Then they host the worst team in baseball, Colorado, as well as the Twins. That’s 10-straight games against losing teams.
Detroit’s division lead could very well be down to five games by the time Aug. 4 rolls around -- or if the Tigers continue playing like they have the last two weeks, even worse.
Battle scars
Tigers fans don’t need to be reminded of 2009, but I think that collapse has a lot to do with the panic in the air right now.
The Tigers led the AL Central by seven games on Sept. 6, 2009, and proceeded to finish the year 11-15 while the Twins won 18 of 26. That forced a Game 163, where the Tigers appropriately blew a 10th-inning lead to ultimately lose in 12.
Even the 2006 Tigers -- universally beloved as the team that brought back winning baseball -- fell apart at the end of the regular season, losing three home games to the 100-loss Royals to concede the division title to the Twins.
It didn’t ultimately matter, but it was a big deal at the time. The Tigers had to go to Yankee Stadium instead of hosting the Oakland Athletics to begin the first round.
Historic collapses in MLB history
It’s hard to label any single collapse as the worst in MLB history because they come in so many different forms.
The 2011 Red Sox live in infamy because their collapse came down to the final day of the season, but that was a wild card race, and it happened over weeks, not months.
Everyone always points to the 1964 Phillies, who had a 6.5-game lead with 12 to play and blew it by dropping 10 straight. But again, that was more of a sprint.
The most relevant historical collapse for these Tigers is probably the 1951 Brooklyn Dodgers, who held a 13-game lead over the New York Giants in the National League (there were no divisions) on Aug. 11, 1951.
The Dodgers were 70-36 on Aug. 11 and went 27-24 to finish 97-60, but the Giants ripped off a 39-8 stretch to snatch the NL Pennant by a single game.
The Tigers had a 14-game lead in early July and a 15.5-game lead over Cleveland, so while it was a bit earlier in the season than the Dodgers-Giants race, the situations are very similar.
My point is: No matter how you define a “collapse,” if the Tigers don’t win the AL Central this season, it would qualify as one of the most shocking slides in MLB history.