DETROIT – We should have known it wouldn’t be easy.
Days before the All-Star break it looked like the second half of the season would merely be a celebration of the Detroit Tigers’ greatness.
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The AL Central race was a formality. The Tigers led by 14 games. Cleveland was 15.5 back. It was all over but the champaign showers.
Until it wasn’t. Out of nowhere, the Guardians went from a 10-game losing streak to winning 22 of 31. That happened to overlap with the Tigers’ worst stretch of the season -- 11 losses in 12 games and an 11-18 mark since sweeping Cleveland on July 6.
So here we are. It’s Aug. 14, and the Tigers lead the Guardians by 6.5. The Tigers have 40 games left, the Guardians have 43.
Let’s take a look at Detroit’s playoff picture as a whole.
AL Central Division
It only took 30 games for the Tigers’ lead over Cleveland to drop by nine, so technically the Kansas City Royals (9.5 back of Detroit) are still alive.
But realistically, this is a Tigers-Guardians race.
Remember: The head-to-head results are more important than ever, because MLB no longer plays an extra game to settle ties for playoff spots. The Tigers have won four of the first seven meetings, with six game remaining.
The Tigers will host the Guardians for three games from Sept. 16-18 and return to Cleveland for three from Sept. 23-25.
Other than the head-to-head meetings, let’s a look at the remaining schedules for both teams.
Tigers’ remaining schedule:
- 4 vs. Twins (away)
- 3 vs. Astros (home)
- 6 vs. Royals (3 home, 3 away)
- 3 vs. Athletics (away)
- 3 vs. Mets (home)
- 3 vs. White Sox (home)
- 3 vs. Yankees (away)
- 3 vs. Marlins (away)
- 3 vs. Braves (home)
- 3 vs. Red Sox (away)
Guardians’ remaining schedule:
- 1 vs. Marlins (home)
- 3 vs. Braves (home)
- 3 vs. Diamondbacks (away)
- 6 vs. Rangers (3 home, 3 away)
- 7 vs. Rays (3 home, 4 away)
- 3 vs. Mariners (home)
- 3 vs. Red Sox (away)
- 4 vs. Royals (home)
- 3 vs. White Sox (home)
- 4 vs. Twins (away)
It’s a bit of an oversimplification, but let’s just say the Tigers have 12 “tough” games remaining against the Astros, Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox. They also have 13 games against decent teams in the Twins, Royals, and Marlins. That leaves nine games against teams with a sub-.450 winning percentage -- the Athletics, White Sox, and Braves.
Cleveland, on the other hand, has only six “tough” games against the Mariners and Red Sox, but 25 games against decent teams -- the Marlins, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Rays, Royals, and Twins. They have six games against sub-.450 teams (Braves and White Sox).
American League
No matter who wins these three divisions, it looks like the race for the two byes is going to be very tight.
Right now, there are realistically seven teams within shouting distance of the top spot in the league:
- Toronto Blue Jays (70-51)
- Detroit Tigers (70-52) -- 0.5 games back
- Houston Astros (68-53) -- 2 games back
- Seattle Mariners (67-54) -- 3 games back
- Boston Red Sox (66-56) -- 4.5 games back
- New York Yankees (64-57) -- 6 games back
- Cleveland Guardians (62-57) -- 7 games back
The Tigers lost the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Blue Jays and Mariners. They lead the Yankees 2-1, the Red Sox 3-0, and the Guardians 4-3, and trail the Astros 1-2.
A top-two finish would allow the Tigers to avoid the best-of-three wildcard round and guarantee home field advantage for the best-of-five divisional series. It would also allow the Tigers to line up their starting rotation for the ALDS and make sure Tarik Skubal could pitch twice, if needed.
National League
If the Tigers do make it to the World Series, home field advantage will be awarded to the team with the better record.
The Brewers lead all of MLB by 6.5 games and the Tigers by 7 games with a 76-44 record, but the Tigers are tied with the Phillies, who own the second-best record in the NL.
The Cubs and Padres are a half-game behind the Tigers, while the Dodgers are 1.5 back. The Mets and Reds are five and six games behind the Tigers, respectively.
Final thoughts
Detroit spent most of the first half as the best team in all of baseball, but the past month has been a bit of a reality check.
Yes, the Tigers have flaws, but they’ve managed to right the course and stay in the mix for one of the top spots in the AL. For as bad as its been since early July, the Tigers built themselves enough cushion to survive.
Those head-to-head games against Cleveland will be critical. If the Tigers can at least win three out of six, they’ll lock up the season series and force Cleveland to cover an extra game on this 6.5-game lead.
As far as the rest of the American League goes, the Blue Jays, Astros, Mariners, and Red Sox look like very worthy competitors for those two byes.