DETROIT – On Aug. 24, the Detroit Tigers were the best team in the American League.
They had won five games in a row. And nine out of 10. They had just embarrassed the division-leading Houston Astros and clinched a series over the playoff-hopeful Kansas City Royals.
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The Tigers led the AL Central Division by 11.5 games, and they were 12.5 up on Cleveland. They were 5.5 games clear of the Astros for a first-round bye.
Since then, it’s been a struggle.
We’re not talking about a catastrophic losing streak like the one in July, when the Tigers lost 12 of 13 games. But it’s been a consistently rough stretch for the better part of a month.
The Tigers got swept by the last-place (at the time) Athletics, gave up 22 runs in two games to a Mets team that left Detroit and immediately lost eight out of nine, and then lost series to the White Sox and Marlins.
There were series wins over the Royals and Yankees mixed in there, but overall, the Tigers have lost 13 of their last 21 games.
It’s not a disastrous stretch, but it has dramatically changed the Tigers’ playoff positioning with 10 games to go.
AL Central Division race
The Tigers last took over sole possession of the AL Central in late April, and they haven’t relinquished that lead since.
They’ve led the Guardians by as many as 15 games, but after Wednesday night’s loss, the lead is down to 4.5.
That might not sound alarming, but it’s getting close. We can definitely call the situation “precarious.”
After their win at Comerica Park on Wednesday, the Guardians have won 11 of 12 games. And they’ve also taken a 5-4 lead in the season series vs. the Tigers.
With three more matchups in Cleveland next week, all the pressure is on the Tigers to win the series finale in Detroit on Thursday.
After that, the Tigers have three at home against Atlanta, and they finish the season with three in Boston. Atlanta is well out of the playoff picture but has won four straight. Boston is fighting for its playoff life.
This weekend, Cleveland gets four games against the Twins -- the second-worst team in the AL. The Guardians finish the season at home against a Texas team that will likely have been eliminated from the postseason by then.
So if the Tigers let the Guardians leave Detroit with the AL Central race still in doubt, the final week and a half could get very interesting. And not in a good way.
No. 1 seed
The last three weeks have basically eliminated the Tigers from the No. 1 seed conversation.
Toronto won the head-to-head season series against the Tigers, which means if the two teams finish tied, Toronto gets the better seed.
So with the Tigers four games back in the standings, they essentially would need to make up five games’ worth of ground in 10 games. That’s not going to happen.
How can I say Cleveland has a chance to catch the Tigers at 4.5 games back but the Tigers can’t catch Toronto?
Well, for one, the Guardians have four head-to-head matchups remaining against the team they’re trying to catch. That sure helps. Cleveland and Toronto are also playing their best baseball right now, and the Tigers are not.
Seven of the Blue Jays’ final 10 games come against the Rays and Royals, who both seem to have mailed it in for the year. So they’re not likely to go on the type of losing streak that it would take for the Tigers to cover that ground.
First-round bye
The Tigers are hanging on by a thread for that second bye through the wildcard round. And it’s not just the Astros who are making a charge.
Seattle won 10 games in a row to pull within two games of the Tigers in the standings, and the Tigers lost the season series against the Mariners, so a tie with them is a loss.
The Tigers won the season series with Houston, which won Wednesday to pull within 1.5 games of the Tigers. If the Tigers lose Thursday, Houston will be just one game back, and Seattle will have a chance to pull within a game against Kansas City.
If the Tigers end up in the wildcard round, they might have to hit the road for a dangerous three-game series. If they win that, they won’t get to set up Tarik Skubal for Game 1 of a possible ALDS, which would definitely be on the road.
The Tigers have been a much better team at home this season, but home field advantage is slowly slipping away.
So the late-season collapse hasn’t only compromised Detroit’s chances of reaching the postseason -- it’s also made the road to the World Series exceptionally more difficult if they do manage to hold on.
Final thoughts
The Tigers had a commanding lead in the division for so long, and they’ve been in front since April. It would be a devastating and historic collapse if they don’t hang on.
But even beyond that, it’s sad that the expectations for this team -- which stood atop the American League for most of the summer -- have changed from World Series contender to simply hoping they make the postseason at all.
The pitching staff as it currently stands is built more for a short playoff series than it is for the long regular season, so if the Tigers get in, they have a chance.
But it’s disappointing that after they looked like one of the best teams in the league for so many months, the last few weeks have put it all at risk.