DETROIT – It’s no secret that the Detroit Tigers have been struggling as of late. They’ve blown a lead that was once 14 games in the AL Central, and as of now, they sit one game back of the Cleveland Guardians, with one game left in the Guardians series before they end their season in Boston.
So, what has changed in the second half (post-all-star break) of the season? First, we must ask what made the Tigers so successful in the first half.
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They ended their first half with a 59-38 record, and a .608 win percentage. So far in the second half, they are 26-34 with a .433 percentage, and just four games remain in the regular season.
Fundamentally, when I think of the foundation of a good team, I think of a team that throws plenty of strikes, runs the bases well, takes care of the ball defensively, and does a good job of situational hitting. More specifically, getting timely two-out hits and hitting with runners in scoring position.
In the first half of the season, they started with a true five-man rotation: Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson, Jackson Jobe, and Casey Mize. They combined for a 3.34 ERA in the first half, during which time the Tigers averaged approximately 4.97 runs scored per game.
On May 30, news broke that Jackson Jobe would be placed on the IL and was to have Tommy John surgery. He was out for the season.
In Jobe’s place, Keider Montero made a few starts, and Sawyer Gipson-Long was activated off the IL and made a few starts, as well. Additionally, a few “pitching chaos” bullpen games were sprinkled in, with Montero and Gipson-Long eating most of the innings in those games.
From June until July, Montero would post approximately a 4.77 ERA and Gipson-Long a 4.69 ERA. The Tigers averaged about 3.85 runs scored during the games they pitched.
On July 28, it was announced that Reese Olson would be headed to the IL, to be out for the remainder of the season. That day, the Tigers announced they had traded catching prospect Enrique Jimenez to the Minnesota Twins for SP Chris Paddack and Randy Dobnak.
They also acquired starter Charlie Morton from the Baltimore Orioles for LHP Micah Ashman on Aug. 2.
Paddack posted a 6.89 ERA in 31.1 innings during his starts. Morton posted a 7.09 ERA in 39.1 innings during his starts. Paddack would later be moved to the bullpen on Sept. 3, and Morton was designated for assignment on Sept. 21.
On top of Paddack and Morton struggling, it is worth mentioning that Mize has struggled a bit more in the second half, his ERA going up from 3.15 to 5.17. He has a record of 14-6, nine of those wins in the first half.
As for the bullpen, one thing to note would be the struggles Will Vest has had in the second half, as he has been the Tigers’ highest leverage reliever. His first half ERA was 2.30 with one loss and four blown saves, his second half ERA is at 4.56 with four losses and three blown saves. He has a total of 21 saves on the season and a 6-5 record.
Although the Tigers are 30th out of 30 teams in stolen bases -- 40 stolen in the first half and 20 stolen in the second half -- this doesn’t paint an accurate picture of what they’ve been able to do on the base paths. Although they may not have the fastest runners in the league, one thing the Tigers do have is instincts.
It is more difficult to split quantified base-running metrics into first half and second half, however when it comes to base-running run value -- the overall value of baserunners measured in runs created or lost via stealing bases and taking extra bases on the base paths -- the Tigers are tied for fifth.
For scaling purposes, leading the league in that category are the Brewers, Mets, and Diamondbacks with 13 base-running runs, and the Mariners are last with -5.
All that to say they have been a decent base-running team when it comes to instincts and taking extra bases, but stealing was certainly a bigger part of their game in the first half of the season.
When it comes to taking care of the ball defensively, it is difficult to split the numbers into first half and second half, as well, so let’s look at an overview of the entire season.
The Tigers are 12th out of 30 teams in defensive runs saved (DRS), or the number of runs a player saved or cost his team defensively relative to an average player. Any positive number is above average. The Tigers have 32 DRS.
For reference, the Rangers lead the league with 88 DRS and the Rockies are ranked 30th with -61 DRS.
With strong outfield defense and one of the better defensive catchers in the league, it is safe to say the Tigers have overall done a fine job of taking care of the ball.
Lastly, let us look at the offense. Oddly enough, they are averaging 4.38 runs scored per game since the all-star break, which is more than their pre all-star average of 3.85 runs scored per game.
However, there are some differences in offensive production in general, and what they’ve been able to do in situations with runners in scoring positions, and with two outs.
First, let’s examine a few players individually who stood out in the first for their offensive performance and what changed in the second half.
| First half batting avg. | First half SLG% (Slug) | Second half batting avg. | Second half SLG% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Greene | .284 | .544 | .224 | .425 |
| Javy Baez | .275 | .442 | .205 | .288 |
| Zach Mckinstry | .285 | .472 | .215 | .386 |
Next, let’s examine the team as a whole and look at both batting average, slugging percentage, and batting average in higher leverage situations, including how they’ve done with runners in scoring position and with two outs in both the first and second half.
| First half AVG | First half AVG with RISP | First half AVG with 2 outs and RISP | First half SLG% | Second half AVG | Second half AVG with RISP | Second half AVG with 2 outs and RISP | Second half SLG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .252 | .266 | .265 | .425 | .238 | .248 | .250 | .400 |
In conclusion, in the first half of the season, starting pitching was throwing plenty of strikes and doing a great job of run prevention. The second half was a bumpier road.
The Tigers were stealing more bases, therefore applying more pressure on the bases in general in the first half of the season.
Defensively, it is more difficult to quantify what has changed between the first and second half of the season, but with the metrics given, we can infer that they are an above-average defensive team, especially in the outfield and behind the plate.
Offensively, they were much better in the first half average wise, slug wise, and in high leverage situations (with RISP and two outs). Timely two-out hits are important, and they had a lot more of those in the first half of the season.
That is what has changed with the Detroit Tigers.