DETROIT – Detroit Tigers fans were irate when A.J. Hinch pulled Casey Mize early in Game 4 of the ALDS against the Seattle Mariners.
Mize was through three solid innings, allowing just one run on two hits and two walks while striking out six. He had thrown 54 pitches.
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It didn’t work. Tyler Holton came in and allowed all three of the batters he faced to reach base. The Mariners scored one run in the fourth and another in the fifth to take a 3-0 lead.
Frustrated by the situation and the continued offensive struggles, Tigers fans needed someone to lash out at. On Wednesday, it was Hinch.
This is the part where I say something unpopular. Are you ready?
Pulling Mize might not have been the wrong decision.
I’m asking for something that’s very rare in the world these days: Hear me out. Keep an open mind. Listen to an opposing perspective.
Again, I know the move didn’t work. That much is clear. When the Tigers fell behind by three runs, I thought the season was coming to an end just like the rest of you.
But in baseball -- a game defined by the marathon of its regular season and the contrasting sprint of a short playoff series -- results aren’t always the best way to judge the process.
My first reaction to the decision
I was fortunate enough to attend Game 4 of this ALDS with my dad. We went to the Game 4 loss to Cleveland at Comerica Park a year ago, so we figured we’d try for some redemption.
Since I was at the game, I didn’t hear any of the analysis from the announcing crew or social media when Mize got yanked. All I know is my phone started blowing up with people who were frustrated by the decision.
Full disclosure: We were a bit surprised that Mize didn’t come out for the fourth inning, and of course, we speculated about why just like everyone else.
The timing part is obvious: Two of the first three batters of the inning were left-handed in Josh Naylor (leading off the fourth) and Dominic Canzone (in the hole).
But it’s not just that they’re lefties. I didn’t like how comfortable they looked against Mize the first time through the order.
Naylor got a splitter up in the zone and smashed it into the right field corner for a double. Then, Canzone smoked the very first pitch -- a well-located splitter -- 106.1 mph through the hole into right field to score Naylor.
Mize got out of the inning without further damage, but not before walking Victor Robles.
The Mariners didn’t score off of Mize in the third, but he played with fire a little bit. Randy Arozarena got a first-pitch sinker that stayed up and lined out to third base. Cal Raleigh walked on five pitches, and none of the four balls were even close.
Mize struck out Julio Rodriguez, but he missed badly with a first pitch splitter and a third-pitch four-seam fastball. Both ended up right down the heart of the plate.
Of the three splitters Mize threw Jorge Polanco to end the third, two of them were way up in the zone, and the other missed well outside. Polanco struck out, but those pitches weren’t where Mize wanted them.
It looked to me like Mize was starting to miss in dangerous spots, specifically with his most important pitch. And in a playoff game with your season on the line, it’s better to bring the hook too early than sit back and suffer the consequences of doing so when it’s too late.
My opinion from inside the stadium: Even though the results were fine, there were warning signs that Mize was starting to lose it. I believed that’s why Hinch went to the bullpen.
What AJ Hinch said
When I listened to Hinch’s postgame comments, his explanation for pulling Mize after three was mostly as expected.
“Casey definitely could’ve gone out, but when the game dropped us off at Naylor, and we have our full allotment in the pen, including Troy (Melton), Tyler, (Kyle) Finnegan, (Will) Vest was going to throw a career high pitches if we needed,” Hinch said. “We were all hands on deck. So the aggressive move to the pen was to try to give them a lot of different looks.
“Naylor, I watched the first at-bat where it was a lot of pitches. He gets the double. Canzone is another tough hitter. They have him in the seven hole to connect those two where they can pinch hit. So if I was going to take (Mize) out at the Canzone at-bat, I wasn’t going to send him out there to get in trouble when we had a couple of matchups that we liked.
“It didn’t work out to start, until Finnegan came in and saved the day with the double play, despite it contributing to a run.”
The popular (and easy) opinion is going to be that Hinch removed Mize too soon. All you have to do is point to what happened in the fourth. But his explanation makes a lot of sense.
I think fans should appreciate that Hinch lives by a certain code and sticks to it. There’s legitimate reasoning behind all of his decisions -- he’s not just winging it.
That’s the strategy that got the Tigers to the playoffs last season. It’s partially why they’ve been able to survive the losses of Reese Olson and Jackson Jobe this year, especially since Mize and Jack Flaherty haven’t been consistent in the second half.
Fans praised “pitching chaos,” so it feels a little hypocritical to go after Hinch for turning to it again when he thought it gave his team the best chance to win. Holton had a bad inning. It happens.
“We knew we were trying to get the ball to Melton, and we didn’t know when it was going to be,” Hinch said. “I just wanted to tell (Mize) that the best chance for us to not only keep this game close but win this game was to continue to throw different pitchers at them. It’s been a successful strategy for us.”
Final thoughts
I think this is the sort of debate where reasonable minds can disagree. I just happen to be in the minority of defending Hinch on this one.
Hinch could have made the easy decision. Nobody would have argued with him leaving Mize in the game for the fourth. Even if it blew up in his face.
But the best managers in baseball don’t make the easy decisions. They make the right decisions. The fact that Hinch was willing to go out of his way and put himself at risk for criticism shows you just how much he believed in the move.
Nobody manages with more conviction than A.J. Hinch. And far more times than not, that has worked out in the Tigers’ favor.
It’s easy to say Hinch made the wrong decision because Holton didn’t retire a single batter in the fourth. But there were definitely some signs that Mize was not as sharp in the third inning.
That, perfectly coinciding with the part of the order that burned Mize the first time around, is enough reason to make a change when your season is on the line, in my opinion.
I don’t agree with all of Hinch’s moves. I wouldn’t have pitched to Jose Ramirez with the tying run on second base in Game 3 of the wildcard round. I probably wouldn’t have kept Wenceel Perez in the heart of the order as long as Hinch did this postseason.
But Hinch has proven to be one of the best managers in baseball, and this season, he once again helped get the most out of a roster that, frankly, doesn’t stack up against the other playoff teams.
It’s been a frustrating few weeks of baseball -- I get it. But this time, I think the frustration is being misplaced.