DETROIT – The Detroit Lions are in big trouble. That much is clear.
With their loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday evening, they fell to 8-6 -- a full two games behind the Bears and 49ers and 1.5 games back of the Packers for the final playoff spots.
After their losses to the Vikings and Packers at home last month, the Lions basically left themselves with one mulligan if they wanted to make the playoffs. They used that mulligan on Sunday, giving up over 500 yards of offense to Matthew Stafford and the Rams.
So what now? First of all, the Lions have to win their final three games -- at home against the Steelers and on the road against the Vikings and Bears.
Yes, there are mathematical ways the Lions could lose a game and still make the playoffs. But that’s not realistic. They must go 3-0.
If they do, here’s how they can catch the other members of the playoff race.
Chicago Bears
Even though the Bears just blasted the Browns and own the No. 2 seed in the NFC, they’re still probably the Lions’ best avenue to the postseason because of a head-to-head matchup in Week 18.
If we’re assuming that the Lions win out, that means the Bears would lose to the Lions in Week 18, giving them five losses.
Since the Lions would own the head-to-head tiebreaker, they would only need the Bears to lose one of their next two games against the Packers or at the 49ers. That would make both the Lions and Bears 11-6, and the Lions would get the playoff spot thanks to the tiebreaker.
How Lions pass Bears:
- Lions win final three games and Bears lose to Packers and/or 49ers.
Green Bay Packers
It sounds odd because the Lions lost both matchups with the Packers, but this is probably their second-most realistic scenario.
Since the Packers have a tie on their resume, the head-to-head tiebreaker won’t come into play. So the Lions would need the Packers to lose two of their final three games and finish 10-6-1.
Green Bay plays at Chicago, then hosts Baltimore, then plays at Minnesota to end the season. The Ravens are currently locked in a battle for the AFC North Division, so the most realistic path is for the Packers to lose to the Bears and Ravens.
The Vikings are no pushover, though, as the Cowboys just found out on their home field.
How Lions pass Packers:
- Lions win final three games and Packers lose at least two of their final three games.
San Francisco 49ers
The Lions currently trail the 49ers by two games, and the Lions can’t win the tiebreaker. San Francisco is 8-2 against the NFC, and the Lions can only get to 7-5. So if these two teams finish with the same record, the Lions will lose the tiebreaker.
That means for the Lions to pass the 49ers, the Lions have to go 3-0 and the 49ers have to go 0-3.
The 49ers play at Indianapolis and then host the Bears and Seahawks to finish the season. Those are three tough games, so it’s possible they could lose out, but not likely.
How Lions pass 49ers:
- Lions win final three games and 49ers lose final three games.
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle leads Detroit by three games with three weeks remaining -- so this situation is pretty dire.
But there are two things working in the Lions’ favor: a possible NFC record tiebreaker and the Seahawks’ remaining schedule.
If the Lions win their final three games and the Seahawks lose all three, the Lions will have a better NFC record -- 7-5 versus 6-6. That means the Lions would advance over the Seahawks.
Seattle hosts the No. 1 seed Rams this Thursday before finishing the season on the road against the Panthers and the 49ers. The Panthers are currently tied with the Buccaneers for the NFC South lead, so their playoff hopes will be on the line in that game, adding quite a bit of competitive intrigue.
So, again, this isn’t likely to happen. But it’s possible.
How Lions pass Seahawks:
- Lions win final three games and Seahawks lose final three games.
Final thoughts
The NFC East and South divisions are basically irrelevant to the Lions at this point. Those division winners will get playoff spots, but it’s impossible for two teams from either of those divisions to finish ahead of the Lions if the Lions are 11-6.
The Lions also can’t pass the Rams, since they lost the head-to-head matchup and the Rams already have 11 wins.
So the attention is on the Bears, Packers, 49ers, and Seahawks. Even though the Lions need some help, the head-to-head meetings between these four teams give them a pretty good chance.
- If the Packers beat the Bears on Saturday, the Lions control their own destiny once again.
- If the Bears beat the Packers on Saturday, the Lions just need the Packers to lose one more game.
- The Seahawks and 49ers play in Week 18, so Detroit’s potential rooting interest in that game (if any) will be determined by what happens the next two weeks.