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Everything that would have to happen for Detroit Lions to miss playoffs with 11-6 record

Lions still likely to make playoffs with wins in final 3 games

DETROIT, MICHIGAN - DECEMBER 04: (L-R) Jared Goff #16 looks on alongside head coach Dan Campbell of the Detroit Lions against the Dallas Cowboys during the fourth quarter at Ford Field on December 04, 2025 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) (Gregory Shamus, 2025 Getty Images)

DETROIT – The Detroit Lions are on the brink of going from preseason Super Bowl aspirations to missing the playoffs altogether. But they’ve still got a very real chance to turn that around.

On Monday, we broke down all the different ways the Lions can still get into the postseason if they win their final three games to finish 11-6.

Click here to read that full explanation.

So while the Lions aren’t in a great spot -- you never want other teams controlling your destiny -- they’re still probably going to make the playoffs if they can beat the Steelers at home this weekend and the Vikings and Bears on the road after that.

Easier said than done, obviously. But there is one way the Lions can become the first team ever to miss the playoffs with an 11-6 record (since the regular season expanded to 17 games).

Here’s everything that would have to happen:

  • Bears beat Packers in Week 16 (in Chicago).
  • Bears beat 49ers in Week 17 (in San Francisco).
  • Packers beat Ravens in Week 17 (in Green Bay).
  • Packers beat Vikings in Week 18 (in Minnesota).
  • 49ers beat Colts in Week 16 (in Indianapolis) AND/OR beat Seahawks in Week 18 (in San Francisco).
  • Seahawks beat Rams in Week 16 (in Seattle) AND/OR beat Panthers in Week 17 (in Carolina) AND/OR beat 49ers in Week 18 (in San Francisco).

If all six of those things happen, then the Lions would get left out of the playoffs, even with an 11-6 record.

The Bears would be 12-5. The Packers would be 11-5-1. The Seahawks would have between 12 and 14 wins. And the 49ers would have at least 11 wins -- since they own the tiebreaker with the Lions, that would be good enough.

When it’s written out like that, you can see how unlikely it is that the Lions would get left out if they win their final three games. Yes, it’s possible. But it would be a stroke of really bad luck.

This is what Dan Campbell is likely preaching to his team after Sunday’s loss: “Win and we’re in.”

Well, probably.


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