DETROIT – Look, I don’t think anybody in Detroit is feeling good about the Lions’ playoff chances right now.
With two weeks remaining in the regular season, the Lions need to beat the Vikings and Bears -- both on the road -- and the Packers need to lose to the Ravens (at home) and the Vikings (on the road).
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It’s not looking good. But it could technically still happen. So before the percentage actually hits zero, let’s take the optimistic view.
Lions at Vikings
- Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 25
The last time the Lions and Vikings met, the Lions were 5-2, heavily favored at home, and looking like one of the top seeds in the NFC once again.
The Lions lost that game, 27-24. It’s been all downhill since.
But as bad as it’s been for Detroit, the Vikings are still in a worse spot -- mathematically eliminated from the postseason.
They’ve also ruled out starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy for the Lions game. That might not sound like a big deal -- McCarthy has had a rough season -- but he did score three touchdowns and control the first meeting against the Lions.
His backup, Max Brosmer, started one game earlier this season against the Seahawks and threw for 126 yards and four interceptions. That’s right: four.
So the Lions’ chances get much better with McCarthy out. It also sounds like leading rusher Jordan Mason might not play, and Aaron Jones is dealing with an injury, too.
The Vikings are injured, eliminated from the playoffs, and have nothing to play for. The Lions are fighting for their playoff lives and seeking revenge for the first meeting.
That all has to add up to a victory, right?
Packers vs. Ravens
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 27
The Packers are dealing with some quarterback uncertainty, too, as Jordan Love left last weekend’s game due to a concussion.
Hopefully Love is OK, and, obviously, we aren’t rooting for anyone to be injured. But there’s no denying that if he’s out, that hurts the Packers. They have a really solid backup quarterback in Malik Willis, but he’s not as good as Love.
The game is on Saturday, so it’s a shortened week for Love to clear concussion protocol.
The Packers are also without superstar pass rusher Micah Parsons, who is done for the year.
Meanwhile, the Ravens are a game behind the Steelers in the AFC North Division and in the exact same position as the Lions: The Ravens have to win their final two games and the Steelers have to lose both in order for the Ravens to make the playoffs.
Fortunately for the Lions, the Ravens play on Saturday, and the Steelers don’t play at Cleveland until Sunday. So no matter what, the Ravens will be alive in the playoff race when their game begins in Green Bay.
It doesn’t feel great on the surface, but the spread is only 2.5 points, so the sports world essentially views this as a tossup.
Lions at Bears
- Sunday, Jan. 4, 2025
It’s hard to feel a lot of optimism about this matchup because of the trajectory of both teams in the second half of the season.
But the Lions won the first meeting 52-21, so maybe this is a bad matchup for the Bears? Or maybe Dan Campbell’s staff has unique insight against Ben Johnson?
That seems pretty unlikely, but this is supposed to be the optimistic angle, right? So we’ll go with it.
More promising is the possibility that the Bears have already locked in their playoff seed by the time Week 18 rolls around.
Let’s say the Bears lose at San Francisco this weekend, which is entirely possible. If the Eagles also lose at Buffalo -- also very possible -- then the Bears would be locked into the No. 2 seed in the NFC (due to strength of victory vs. the Seahawks).
Technically, the 49ers or Rams could jump to the top of the NFC West and complicate the tiebreaker situation even more, but we don’t need to get into all of that. The point is, there’s a chance the Lions game doesn’t matter to the Bears, which would definitely help.
Packers at Vikings
- Sunday, Jan. 4, 2025
You know everything we said about why the Lions should win in Minnesota? The Lions then have to turn around and hope all that stuff doesn’t hold true the following week when the Vikings host the Packers.
Maybe McCarthy and the running backs will be back for this matchup. That would help. But the Vikings will still be eliminated, and the Packers won’t.
Of the four outcomes the Lions need to make the playoffs, this one feels like the longest shot.
But think about how the Lions finished the 2022 season against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, knocking them out of the playoffs in Week 18, even though the Lions had no shot to make it.
Detroit has no choice but to hope the Vikings can pull off something similar.
If the stars align and all of this happens, the Lions will get the No. 7 seed in the NFC. And hey, they might end up right back in Chicago for the first round.