DETROIT – Although we've maintained a cooler-than average temperature regime all week, as the old saying goes, "you ain't seen nothing yet." A very sharp blast of winter is headed this way and, by this time tomorrow, you'll be talking about the weather.
Tonight will remain quiet, with mostly clear skies for most of the night, before becoming partly cloudy toward dawn. Lows in the low 30s (-1 to 0 degrees Celsius). South-southwest wind at 3 to 8 mph.
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Thursday is the day the Local4Casters have been targeting for quite a while now. We'll start with partial sunshine, and temperatures will rise into the low to mid 40s (6-8 degrees Celsius) by lunchtime. However, the front edge of a severe (by November standards) Arctic air mass, otherwise known as a cold front, will race across southeast Michigan between noon and 3 p.m., and bring a very sharp change in our weather. In terms of precipitation, a narrow line of rain showers will accompany the front, followed by scattered snow showers. Wind will increase, and west to northwest gusts between 30 and 40 mph are possible as the front passes by.
Temperatures are also something for you to take note of: those low to mid 40s you may experience if you go out to lunch will crash: by early evening, many of us will have dropped all the way down into the upper 20s (-2 degrees Celsius). Factor in the wind, and wind chills – how the temperature actually feels on your exposed skin – will be in the mid teens to low 20s (-5 to -9 degrees Celsius) by evening. Here's the bottom line: the weather will be very different when you leave for work than when you come home…and same holds true for the kids going to and from school. Make sure you (and they) are prepared for this. Here are some maps I've prepared to help you plan:
Thursday's sunrise is at 7:17 a.m., and Thursday's sunset is at 5:17 p.m., which means that we'll have fallen to exactly ten hours of daylight, and dropping.
If you still haven't drained your hoses and brought them in for the winter, or had your sprinkler system blown out, you'd better get this done or you'll be in for some trouble come Saturday.
Although skies will clear for most of us Thursday night, one thing I'll be monitoring are the Lake Huron lake effect bands that develop Thursday night into early Friday. Right now, all of my high-resolution computer models keep the bands off shore, but it'll be a close call for the immediate Lake Huron shoreline areas. The Local4Casters will certainly let you know if there are any changes. Lows near 20 degrees (-7 degrees Celsius) Thursday night will challenge our record low of 19 degrees, set in 1913.
Mostly sunny on Friday, but the sunshine will be purely cosmetic, as highs will barely reach 30 degrees (-1 degree Celsius). Friday's record for the lowest high temperature is 28 degrees (-2 degrees Celsius), set in 1913. We'll be close!
Mostly clear to start Friday night, but some clouds infiltrate late at night. Lows again near 20 degrees (-7 degrees Celsius), which once again will be close to our record low of 19 degrees, set in 1926.
Increasing clouds on Saturday, with highs in the upper 30s (4 degrees Celsius). Yes, that's warmer than Friday's high. But keep in mind that our long-term average high right now is 52 degrees (11 degrees Celsius)!
Cloudy Saturday night, with lows in the low 30s (-1 to 0 degrees Celsius).
A weak weather system will be passing by on Sunday, and right now it appears that we'll see some light rain showers, possibly mixed with wet snow. Highs in the mid 40s (6-7 degrees Celsius).
Next week looks mostly dry, with just some possible rain showers to deal with on Wednesday. Otherwise, temperatures should remain pretty consistent in the mid 40s (7-8 degrees Celsius).