DETROIT – Everything is on track for our weekend storm. The forecast remains stable and there are multiple issues to deal with, as will be explained in great detail below. But first, we’ll have mostly clear skies tonight, with chilly lows once again, down into the mid to upper teens (-9 to -7 degrees Celsius). Fortunately, we’ll have calm air, so wind chill won’t be an issue.
Our Saturday will start with bright sunshine. We’ll keep the sunshine through midday, then clouds will rapidly increase. It’ll remain dry through late afternoon. Then, from 6 to 9 p.m., an area of rain with heavy downpours (and possibly even some rumbles of thunder) will spread northeast across the area. If it’s not raining when you leave for your Saturday evening plans, take your umbrella with you.
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And this leads us to Issue #1 for this weekend: the air in advance of this rain will be very dry. Once rain starts falling into that dry air, it will initially evaporate, and evaporation causes cooling (that’s why you feel cold when you step out of the shower or pool, water is evaporating off your skin).
This won’t be a problem for most of our area because it’ll be warm enough, although it’ll be a cold rain if you’re out in it. However, farther north – especially north of I-69 – it’ll be a bit cooler, and that means that the air above us could possibly cool enough when that rain arrives to change it to a wintry mix.
So, don’t be surprised north of I-69 if you get a taste of winter Saturday evening before it eventually changes over to rain. At this point, we don’t expect significant wintry impacts, but do be aware of this if you will be up that way Saturday evening.
Here’s a rough estimate of the timing (which you can also see on the maps below). Obviously, these times can change a bit, but this is how it looks as of now:
Rain arrives Adrian to Toledo: 5:30 – 6:30 p.m.
Rain arrives Lansing to Ann Arbor to Wyandotte: 6:30 to 7:30 p.m.
Rain arrives Fenton to Rochester Hills to Mount Clemens: 7:30 to 8:30 p.m.
Rain or wintry mix arrives Port Huron to Saginaw: 8:30 to 9:30 p.m.
The rain should change to scattered showers as an occluded front crosses that area around 4 a.m., and then mostly end by dawn.
Here’s a series of maps to show you the expected timing of this weekend’s precipitation:
And this takes us to Issue #2 for this weekend: we’re going to pick up a quick three-quarters of an inch of rain (some models suggest even more) Saturday night. Remember that the ground is frozen -- it cannot soak up any of this rain, so whatever falls will simply follow the rules of gravity and run off. So, there could be some flooding in low areas and the typical flood plains (such as Hines Drive).
Temperatures Saturday will rise quickly in the morning with that sunshine, then slow as the clouds increase during the afternoon. Right now, it appears that we’ll have afternoon highs in the upper 30s to low 40s (4 to 5 degrees Celsius), followed by a small temperature drop when the rain arrives, followed by a rise in temperatures into the middle of the night ahead of the front, followed by a small drop toward dawn behind the front.
Sunday itself should be mostly dry, with perhaps a stray, light shower early in the day, and a flurry in the afternoon. Temperatures should hold nearly steady around 40 degrees (5 degrees Celsius).
And we now need to address Issue #3 for this weekend: the wind. It will become increasingly breezy Saturday night, and downright windy late at night into Sunday. Forecast soundings this afternoon (computer model output showing meteorological parameters aloft) suggest that it should be easy to attain 40 to 45 mph wind gusts. It looks increasingly likely that our local National Weather Service office on Saturday will need to issue a Wind Advisory. Stay tuned for that. Needless-to-say, scattered power outages are possible on Sunday, although it won’t be as bad as it was exactly two Sundays ago with that high wind event.
Next week
Becoming partly cloudy on Monday, with highs in the upper 30s (3 to 4 degrees Celsius), and it’ll be a breezy day.
Expect wall-to-wall and coast-to-coast sunshine on Tuesday -- a beautiful winter day (even as look forward to spring), with highs in the low 40s (5 to 6 degrees Celsius). Remember that the sun angle is much higher in March than it is in January…that sun will feel nice, and you experienced this today if you were outside.
Increasing clouds on Wednesday, and warmer, with highs approaching 50 degrees (10 degrees Celsius).
Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning, then end hopefully before noon. This will be our warmest day of the forecast…temperatures could hit 60 degrees (15 degrees Celsius).
But before you get too giddy, an upper air pattern change will bring below average temperatures back to the area starting Friday, and that could potentially stick around for at least the next week.
Time change this weekend
Remember, this weekend we set our clocks ahead one hour before going to bed Saturday night. This is the more important of the two time changes because, if you forget to change your clocks, you’ll be one hour late for whatever you have planned Sunday morning. Yes, we lose an hour of sleep, but that’s easily managed by going to bed a little earlier Saturday night.
Plus, we shift one hour of daylight from the morning to the evening. We love having that daylight on our warm summer evenings, don’t we? Also, please remember that it is called daylight saving time, not daylight savings time. We don’t know why so many people put an “s” on the end of “saving.” Perhaps it’s the same reason old-timers called Ford “Fords” and Meijer “Meijers.”
