Metro Detroit weather: Refreshing day ahead, but potential trouble looms

DETROIT – Did you notice the air mass change?

Once Tuesday’s cold front crossed the area, temperatures and humidity immediately crashed, and we finally had some great sleeping weather overnight. The day ahead looks spectacular, but there are two concerning aspects of the forecast that I need to spend some time on, which I will below.

But first, we’ll have partly cloudy skies today, comfortable temperatures, and highs in the mid to upper 70s (25 to 26 degrees Celsius). It will become a breezy day, though – not as windy as Tuesday afternoon, just breezy – with a west wind at 10 to 15 mph and gusts over 20 mph. Those west winds will keep the Lakeshore Flood Warning for the eastern Lake St. Clair shoreline areas -- especially Harsens Island -- going until at least 4:00 p.m.

Today’s sunrise is at 5:58 a.m., and today’s sunset is at 9:14 p.m.

Partly cloudy Wednesday night, with lows in the mid to upper 50s (14 degrees Celsius) -- keep those windows open and enjoy the comfy sleeping weather! Light southwest wind.

Partly cloudy on Thursday -- slight chance of a shower -- with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees (26 to 27 degrees Celsius).

Partly cloudy Thursday night, with lows in the low 60s (16 degrees Celsius) -- still nice.

Partly cloudy on Friday, and we may end up with more morning sunshine than in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s (29 to 30 degrees Celsius).

Potential Trouble No 1.

Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the area Friday night into probably the first half of Saturday as a cold front approaches. Timing of these storms is critical -- if they are mostly overnight, when it’s cooler, then severe chances are much lower. However, if they last farther into the day on Saturday when temperatures start rising, then we could have a severe threat. Recognizing this, the Storm Prediction Center has put us in a conditional severe risk area for this time frame.

Once the front goes through, the storms end and some sunshine will develop -- hopefully in time to salvage part of our Saturday. Muggy lows Friday night in the upper 60s (20 degrees Celsius), and highs Saturday in the mid 80s (29 to 30 degrees Celsius).

Partly cloudy Saturday night, with lows in the mid to upper 60s (19 to 20 degrees Celsius).

Partly cloudy on Sunday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s (30 to 31 degrees Celsius).

Potential trouble No. 2

Although this is by no means a slam dunk, the long range computer models suggest a building upper level ridge of high pressure that could influence our weather for most of next week. If the positioning of this ridge manifests itself as this morning’s models suggest, then we would have another hot, dry week ahead, with highs in the upper 80s (31 degrees Celsius), and overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s (19 to 21 degrees Celsius).

Even though some of us got some rain yesterday, it wasn’t nearly enough for most. So, we REALLY need to get some good rainfall out of this Friday night / Saturday’s storms, or our soil moisture content will continue to drop.

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