Metro Detroit weather: Tracking severe storms, potential flooding

Chance of rain, storms every day through next Friday

We will start the weekend with a stray shower or thunderstorm Saturday morning. Storm chances will increase during the afternoon into Saturday night.

DETROITHappy Friday!

And so it begins: Today is day 1 of an expected extended period of rain and storms.

Rain timing

We’ll have scattered, relatively light showers Friday, with an uptick in both coverage and storm intensity during the afternoon into Friday evening.

Evening storms will diminish to scattered showers Friday night.

We will start the weekend with a stray shower or thunderstorm Saturday morning. Storm chances will increase during the afternoon into Saturday night.

On Sunday, some models still suggest that a front, which will plague us into next week, could shift a bit to the north. If this occurs, we could get a break from the rain -- and possibly have partly sunny skies -- for the first half of Sunday, followed by scattered storms popping up during the warmest part of the day.

Severe storm potential

We have a marginal risk of severe storms all three days, Friday through Sunday.

I want to emphasize that we are not facing any “classic” severe scenarios through the weekend. Favorable upper-level dynamics mean that a few 60 mph wind gusts are not out of the question. Also, the exact placement of small low pressure areas tracking along the front means that some wind shear could come into play, which means that an isolated, brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

Flood potential

Total rainfall through the weekend should easily reach 1 to 3 inches, so we have legitimate flood concerns this weekend for two reasons: Any particularly heavy rain that hits an urban area could cause flooding since the concrete cannot absorb any of that water. And second, the sheer amount of rain expected means that river levels will rise. Be especially conscious of these factors if you live in those areas.

Weekend temperatures

If you left the windows open Thursday night, or have already stepped outside, you know that the humidity is back, and it’ll be with us through the weekend.

Overnight lows near 70 degrees mean very uncomfortable sleeping weather for the next several days. Highs should reach the mid to upper 70s on Friday, the low 80s on Saturday and possibly the upper 80s on Sunday (if we get any sunshine).

More rain next week

Scattered showers and storms are possible Monday through Wednesday (but not necessarily all-day rain), with higher chances on Thursday. Friday could end up more dry than wet, but there is a lot of uncertainty this far out. Stay tuned!

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About the Author:

Local 4 meteorologist Paul Gross was born in Detroit and has spent his entire life and career right here in southeast Michigan. Paul has researched, written and produced eight half-hour documentaries for WDIV, as well as many science, historical and environmental stories.