How the flap of a butterflies wings helps explain why we got so much more snow than expected
Let’s start by stating the obvious: this was not a good day for forecasters. And you have every right to be upset. Our predicted inch or so of snow turned into five times that amount across much of Metro Detroit. And although we knew the evening commute would be slow and slippery, it was much worse than anticipated. For that, we apologize.
Fortunately, tonight was the exception and not the rule. While we are not blaming butterflies, there is a correlation I will explain.
So what in the world happened? Well, I could go into detail discussing things like thermodynamic profiles, lapse rates, and convergent banding. Or I could simply say a secondary cold front took its sweet old time moving through the area, helping it snow longer and harder than expected. The inherent difficulty of forecasting lake-effect snow didn’t help those of you in the Thumb either, where some spots actually ended up getting less.
Where do butterflies fit into all this? There is something called “the butterfly effect,” which explains how a tiny change in a complex system can cause massive, unpredictable outcomes. The metaphor often used is that one flap of a butterfly’s wings can cause a tornado thousands of miles away. In this case, a relatively small change in the atmosphere created a big change in the forecast.