A nice warming trend continues today and tomorrow. Highs reach the upper 50s this afternoon and then upper 60s on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon and evening.
A 4Warn Weather Alert has been issued for Thursday afternoon and evening due to the threat for severe storms across Southeast Michigan.
WHEN: 3PM to 9PM is the wide window, but latest model data is trending to pull the more widespread severe threat through between 7PM to 9PM.
WHERE: There is still uncertainty as to how far north the instability will reach. From I-696/I-96 south, there is a slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe weather. A marginal (level 1) risk is from I-696 to around I-69.
WHAT: All threats are on the table, but hail and tornadoes will be the most significant.
- Hail: Conditions will be favorable for large hail (up to 2 inch/tennis ball-sized) even in the marginal risk area.
- Wind: Damaging wind potential will be little greater closer to the Ohio state line. However, most of the area will be at risk for isolated damaging wind gusts greater than 60 mph.
- Tornadoes: Tornado probabilities are a little higher in our southern communities, but isolated strong (EF-2+) tornadoes are not out of the question across much of Southeast Michigan.
- Flooding: Heavy downpours are possible, but flash flood risk remains low.
Weather Whiplash
Sharply colder air arrives Thursday night and Friday, followed by a steady warming trend through the weekend and into early next week. Highs on Friday will be about 30 degrees colder than Thursday, topping out around 40. We rise to seasonal upper 40s on Saturday before reaching the 50s on Sunday.
Next Week
We start the next workweek with highs back in the 60s and our next chance for rain after Thursday’s storms will be Tuesday of next week.