DETROIT – Although there still remains some uncertainty, confidence is growing that we’ll receive several inches of snow Saturday night into Sunday. Needless to say, travel to and from our Super Bowl parties is going to be a mess, and we might as well give a huge round of applause and thanks right now to all of the county road crews who will have to miss the big game to plow our roads.
Fortunately, the first half of our weekend looks dry, and that includes tonight. Although skies may clear for a while this evening, clouds will roll back in later tonight. Lows around 11 degrees (-12 degrees Celsius). Southwest wind at 5 to 10 mph will certainly add some bite to the cold temperatures.
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Although it’s possible that we could see some sun Saturday morning, skies should become cloudy during the afternoon. A bit of light snow could start as early as late afternoon in the Thumb, but the heart of our metropolitan area should remain dry during the day.
This is the day you want to get shopping and errands done this weekend. Highs near 30 degrees (-1 degree Celsius). South wind at 10 to 20 mph will make it feel like upper teens on exposed skin (-8 degrees Celsius).
Saturday’s sunrise is at 7:44 a.m., and Saturday’s sunset is at 5:50 p.m.
Light snow is likely Saturday night, but we're only expecting an inch or two for most. Lows in the upper 20s (-2 degrees Celsius).
The weekend storm
As we explained in yesterday’s article, the strength of Sunday’s storm system will be dependent upon if two approaching upper level disturbances phase (i.e., “merge”). There’s a northern one coming down toward us Alberta Clipper-style from northwest Canada, and a southern one crossing the Pacific northwest coast today that will track roughly from Denver to St. Louis to the Ohio River. Today’s computer models suggest that the two disturbances won’t phase (or, if they do, it’ll be well east of us).
The important caveat is that the southern disturbance was still over the Pacific when this morning’s land-based weather balloons were launched, so there still could be changes to the forecast based upon the fact that the computer models won’t get a better handle on that disturbance until tonight’s model runs and, especially, tomorrow’s. But we don’t have tonight’s and tomorrow’s models at our disposal this afternoon. Based upon today’s scenario of the two disturbances not phasing, we won’t have a powerful storm system developing near us. However, the stronger of the two disturbances (the northern one) will still be rather robust when it crosses the Great Lakes, so we still expect a robust response in terms of snowfall, just not the big 6” to 10” type of storm we’d get if the two disturbances phased. The Local4Casters are monitoring this very closely, and will update you on Local 4, on our FREE weather app (just search until WDIV in the app store), and here on ClickOnDetroit.com. Of course, those of you who follow along on Twitter (@PGLocal4) always get personalized updates, and we'll certainly update you through the weekend.
Here is a series of maps showing you the snow’s progression over the weekend (note, this high-resolution model ends at 4:00 PM Sunday):
The upshot to this all is that snow should ramp up both in coverage and intensity during the day on Sunday, with highs in the low 30s (0 degrees Celsius). Those of you who have our free app will have fun watching the snow increase on the app’s radar page! we're still a little nervous about snowfall totals because of the uncertainty we wrote about above with the southern of those two upper level disturbances. Based upon everything we’ve been able to look at this afternoon, we think it’s reasonable to anticipate a 3” to 6” magnitude type of snow event (total snow from Saturday night through Sunday). Again, this could change, and PLEASE remember that this is a range. Many people only focus on the higher number, but that’s not our forecast. Our forecast is for snow in the RANGE of 3” to 6”, with lowest amounts to the south and highest amounts to the north. We realize that this will mess up travel plans to some Super Bowl parties but, to keep this in proper perspective, remember that it was only three years ago when the Super Bowl Snowstorm of 2015 hit. Metro Airport officially recorded 16.7” of snow with that one, Detroit’s third biggest snowstorm on record. This weekend’s storm will be nothing like that one. But still, don’t drink if you’ll be driving in the elements, the snow will make things tough enough.
Here is how one model is projecting this weekend’s snow totals. Again, these could change:
So, on the Snow Meter, we'll label this weekend as a “Tough Shovel” snow. We save the Pizza and Beer category for those 6” to 10” snows that keep you inside eating a frozen pizza and beverage, and the highest category for those 10”+ snowfalls that, well, you know the rest.
Snow should wind down toward the end of the game Sunday evening. Lows overnight dropping back to around 9 degrees (-13 degrees Celsius) as another surge of Arctic air returns behind this storm system.
We’ll start Monday with some sunshine, but clouds will increase once again. Highs in the low 20s (-6 degrees Celsius).
Another batch of light snow crosses the area Monday night, this could give us another 1” to 2” of accumulation (especially the farther south you area, areas to the north probably won’t get as much). Lows in the mid to upper teens (-8 degrees Celsius).
Any lingering snow first thing Tuesday morning should end, with a bit of sun possible during the afternoon. Highs in the upper 20s (-2 degrees Celsius).
The next storm -- or not
The uncertainty we discussed yesterday for Tuesday night / Wednesday snow hasn’t changed a bit. The ECMWF model still develops a well-defined surface low, and tracks it northeast across the Ohio River, we’d get solid accumulating snow from this scenario (highest in Monroe-Lenawee Counties, with decreasing amounts as you head northwest). Meanwhile, three other models (the GFS, GEM and UKMET) all either don’t develop a surface low, or develop it so far east of us that it won’t matter, these models don’t give us a single flake. As we mentioned yesterday, we meteorologists normally will lean toward the solution offered by three models that agree, but the one model that doesn’t agree this time is the outstanding ECMWF, so it can’t be ignored. All we can say at this point is to stay tuned.