DETROIT – Everything appears to be playing out as expected with Metro Detroit's winter storm.
Light snow gradually developed through the morning and remained light into the early afternoon. Many areas received an inch or so of accumulation (for example, Steve Sobel in Farmington reported 1.3 inches by mid-afternoon), although there has been one report of 2 inches accumulating in Ann Arbor.
As the first batch of snow exits and the second batch heads on in, some of us -- particularly those south of I-94 -- might see the snow briefly diminish to flurries.
The main event is lurking just around the corner, however, and heavier snow should develop and envelope the area generally between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. During this time, it’s possible that we’ll see snowfall rates of an inch per hour, or even more. Visibility will be significantly reduced, and road conditions will deteriorate rapidly.
The heavy rush-hour traffic volume will make it tough for road crews to keep up with the heavy snow, so it’s going to be a brutal drive home from work.
The storm system is now west of Chicago and should slide just south of the state line this evening.
Since the heaviest stripe of snow with most winter storms falls in a swath about 75 to 125 miles north or northwest of the low-pressure area, that puts the heaviest snow with this system right across the center of our area.
Snow will gradually get lighter by mid-evening and should end altogether by midnight in most areas. The one exception is in the Thumb, where north winds behind the departing low will potentially generate some lake-effect snow bands.
Those will move out as winds turn more to the northwest later Wednesday night. Here’s a series of hourly maps showing the storm’s progression through the evening hours, followed by a snow accumulation forecast map.
Overall, the heaviest stripe of snow that develops across the central part of our area should probably average around 6 inches of snow, with some places in that band perhaps getting a bit more or a bit less. North and south of that band, amounts will be less, perhaps in the 3- to 4-inch range.
More cold air fills in behind the storm, and lows Wednesday night should drop into the low to mid-teens (-10 to -11 degrees Celsius). Winds at 10-20 mph late Wednesday night will generate wind chills by dawn between 0 degrees and 10 degrees above zero (-12 to -17 degrees Celsius). That’s what you want to dress for when you head out the door for work or school Thursday morning.
Don’t forget your sunglasses Thursday, either, as partly cloudy skies should become mostly sunny. It’ll be a chilly day, though, with highs only near 20 degrees (-7 degrees Celsius).
Thursday’s sunrise is at 7:55 a.m., and its sunset will be at 5:02 p.m.
Expect increasing clouds Thursday night, with lows in the low teens (-11 degrees Celsius).
Snow showers develop on Friday, but it won’t be a major storm system. Some accumulation is possible, but it will be nothing like the current storm affecting us. Highs will be in the mid-20s (-3 degrees Celsius).
Snow showers end Friday night, with lows in the mid- to upper teens (-8 degrees Celsius).
Expect mostly cloudy conditions on Saturday, with perhaps a bit more sunshine developing in the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 20s (-1 to -2 degrees Celsius).
It will be partly cloudy Saturday night, with lows in the low 20s (-6 degrees Celsius).
Expect a cloudy day on Sunday, with a light rain or snow shower possible by mid- to late afternoon. It will also be warmer, with highs in the mid-30s (2 degrees Celsius).
Long-range outlook
Although we've been tied up with the winter storm Wednesday, we did take a look at the long-range maps for next week into Christmas.
Right now, there don't appear to be any major storm systems for southeast Michigan, especially the type that would cause massive travel delays. There will be some weaker systems to watch, but there doesn't appear to be any indication of those larger storms that we worry about around theholidays.
As noted in the forecast last week, most of the snow we’ll be getting should stick around and give us a white Christmas. Fingers crossed!