We’re getting a sneak peek at what this winter season could like -- and feel like -- in Michigan.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) released their annual seasonal outlook for the country, which forecasts, generally, what the winter could bring.
Starting in December 2022 through February 2023, NOAA predicts drier-than-average conditions across the South with wetter-than-average conditions for areas of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. This year La Niña returns for the third consecutive winter, driving warmer-than-average temperatures for the Southwest and along the Gulf Coast and eastern seaboard.
“The hardworking forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center produce timely and accurate seasonal outlooks and short-term forecasts year-round,” said Michael Farrar, Ph.D., director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. “NOAA’s new supercomputers are enabling us to develop even better, more detailed forecast capabilities, which we’ll be rolling out in the coming years.”
Winter 2022-2023: U.S. temperature outlook
As you’ll see in the map below, it looks like a pretty normal winter for temperature in the Lower Peninsula, with slightly below average temps forecasted in the Upper Peninsula and western Great Lakes region.
- The greatest chance for warmer-than-average conditions are in western Alaska, and the Central Great Basin and Southwest extending through the Southern Plains.
- Warmer-than-average temperatures are also favored in the Southeastern U.S. and along the Atlantic coast.
Winter 2022-2023: U.S. precipitation outlook
As the map shows below, wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in Lower and Upper Michigan, western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
That means more precipitation for Michigan this winter -- which could translate to more snow, depending on the temperatures.
- The greatest chances for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast.
- The remainder of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal total precipitation.
About NOAA’s seasonal outlooks
NOAA’s seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are anticipated to change in the months ahead. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The next update will be available November 17.