Best NBA picks for Wednesday, March 16: Player point overs and same game parlays

NBA bets for Wednesday night

Brooklyn Nets' Kevin Durant reacts during the second half of the team's NBA basketball game against the Indiana Pacers, Wednesday, Jan. 5, 2022, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings) (Darron Cummings, Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)

Here’s a look at some picks for NBA games on Wednesday, March 16, 2022.

Kevin Durant o29.5 Points -125

  • 2.5u to win 2u

Tonight’s Nets game is at home, which means, no Kyrie. Kyrie and Durant have been trading explosive games back and forth lately. No Kyrie means all the usage goes to Durant.

Durant is already averaging 31% usage this season. That increases to 36.8% without Kyrie and James Harden on the floor together. Durant’s points per game also increase substantially without Kyrie and Harden on the floor. He is averaging 28.4 pts/36 mins this season, but that increase by 4.4 points/36 mins without Kyrie and Harden.

Durant has played in 5 games this season without Kyrie and Harden:

  • 3/13 vs New York Knicks – 53 pts
  • 3/03 vs Miami Heat – 31 pts
  • 12/16 vs Philadelphia 76ers – 34 pts
  • 12/14 vs Toronto Raptors – 34 pts
  • 12/12 @ Detroit Pistons – 51 pts

More picks:

  • Durant 35+ pts +196 (FD)
    • 1u to win 1.96u
  • Durant 40+ pts +520 (FD)
    • .5u to win 2.6u

Darius Garland o8.5 Assist -115 (DK)

    • 1.15u to win 1u

I could be talked into Garland’s points or assist prop today. Currently, with Embiid in the lineup for Philly, I plan to target just his assist prop. Garland has 10+ assist in five of his last six. This current streak started with Garland getting 19 dimes against the Sixers. Embiid is currently questionable. If he sits, then I would add Garland points, as well.

De’Aaron Fox o26.5 Points +100 (DK)

  • 2u to win 2u

Betting the Fox points over has been successful recently. He has had 26+ points in 13 of his last 16 games. He is averaging 34.6 points/game over his last five games and 29.9 over his last 10 games.

Tonight, the Kings welcome the World Champion Bucks into Golden 1 Center. Milwaukee has been a great matchup for PGs this season. They give up the 5th most points to the PG position and the most 3PM.

Robert Williams III o21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assist -125

  • 1.25u to win 1u

There are 150 defensive positions in the NBA, five per team multiplied by 30 teams. Over the last 30 days, the best matchup in the NBA for points has been centers vs Golden State. Over the last 30 days, the 5th best matchup for rebounding is centers vs Golden State. Over the last 30 days, the 7th best matchup for assist has been centers vs Golden State.

All of this screams “great matchup” for Williams tonight. He’s averaging 21.8 PRA for the season and 23.4 PRA over his last 20 games. This game being against Golden State is also important because it means Williams will likely be on the floor for his full compliment of minutes. In games where he plays 30+ minutes this season, he is averaging 25 PRA this season.

Same game parlays for tonight: 1u Each

  • Luka and Durant 25+ Points Each + Luka and Durant 2+ Threes Each +106 (FD)
  • Darius Garland o8.5 Assist + Evan Mobley o15.5 +221
  • De’Aaron Fox o26.5 + o1.5 Made Threes +164