DETROIT – I can’t even believe we’re having two of these conversations about hypothetical College Football Playoff scenarios.
The debate surrounding the final CFP poll has never been as heated as it is at this very moment. Just hours from the start of conference championship games, eight teams remain in contention for the four playoff spots -- and seven of them are in action Friday or Saturday.
With the field expanding to 12 teams next year, this is the last chance for programs to leave their stamp on a whole era of college football.
But nobody can seem to agree on which teams should make the playoff in certain hypothetical scenarios -- and that’s part of the fun. Everyone wants to talk about what would happen if only certain favorites win or an underdog pulls an upset. There have never been so many possible iterations of the final four at this point in the season.
I have my opinions on how the final rankings should play out based on what happens in the Power Five conference title games. But there are two hills, in particular, I’m absolutely willing to die on when it comes to these hypothetical rankings.
What to do if Florida State finishes 13-0
I’ve always hated the concept of picking the “best” teams over the most deserving teams. It’s stupid. That literally goes against the very essence of sports.
Why play the rest of the NFL season? We all know the Eagles are the “best” team.
While we’re at it, Washington and Oregon shouldn’t even kick off tonight. The Ducks are a 10-point favorite despite losing to the Huskies six weeks ago. But who cares? Vegas says Oregon is better.
Was Fairleigh Dickinson better than Purdue in basketball last season? Absolutely not. But they played the game anyway, and the result was an historic moment many people will never forget.
It’s a maddening concept. In sports, teams have always had to earn their way into the postseason, no matter how much talent they have on paper.
Luckily, even though the official playoff verbiage calls for the “best” teams, that’s not how committees have executed their rankings. So far, every single final CFP poll has picked the right four teams to make the playoff, in my opinion.
So let’s not pretend Florida State should be punished for an injury.
I’m sure you’ve heard Florida State’s star quarterback, Jordan Travis, is out for the season. It’s terrible luck for a team that looked like a legitimate national championship contender.
As a result of the injury, many people want the Seminoles left out of the playoff, even if they beat Louisville to win the ACC and finish 13-0.
I can’t believe this is even an argument.
Maybe Louisville will beat Florida State on Saturday night and this debate will be moot. But if not, there shouldn’t be a single one-loss team ranked ahead of the Seminoles on Sunday.
The goal in sports is to win, and if Florida State beats Louisville, it will have won each and every one of its games this season. How can you punish a team that goes through an entire season without a loss?
I don’t think the Seminoles have a chance to win the championship without Travis, but I know one thing for sure: They deserve the opportunity to prove me wrong.
If an undefeated team gets left out of the playoff, it will invalidate the entire process that college football has chosen to name a champion.
We think Florida State isn’t good enough to win it all, but guess what? There’s a way we can find out for sure. Put them on the field.
Texas vs. Alabama vs. Georgia
Another opinion that I find completely invalid is that Alabama has any chance to jump Texas if both teams finish 12-1. And the same goes for Georgia if it loses to Alabama on Saturday.
Come on, what are we even doing here?
If Alabama and Texas both finish as 12-1 conference champions, how can you possibly justify elevating Alabama when Texas beat Alabama this season?
I don’t care that it was in September. I don’t care that Texas’ loss would technically be a little bit worse (but still not by any means a bad loss). Texas went on the road to Tuscaloosa and beat Alabama by 10 points. That’s it. End of discussion.
If Michigan, Washington, Florida State, Texas, and Alabama all win this weekend, the SEC should be left out of the playoff. Period.
I think Georgia is easily one of the four best teams in the country, but if the results of the games don’t matter, why do we play them at all?
Michigan, Washington, and Florida State would be undefeated. Texas would have a win over Alabama, which would have a win over Georgia. This is not subjective -- there is literally a right answer to the equation.
We can try to talk ourselves into some convoluted justification for Alabama over Texas: “SP+ and FPI and strength of record and blah blah blah.” Or we can say, “Hey, these two teams actually played, and this team beat that team, so this team is ranked ahead of them.” It’s not exactly a difficult concept.
Michigan lost to TCU in the semifinal last year, but hey, most of us think Michigan was a better team. Maybe Michigan should have played Georgia for the championship! Head-to-head results don’t matter, right?
If Texas loses to Oklahoma State, then I have no problem with Alabama jumping ahead. Comparing teams with different loss totals is a completely different exercise.
So many people have told me, “There’s just no way the committee leaves out the SEC,” and I tend to agree with them. I think even if the scenario above plays out, the committee will find a way to get Alabama (or both) in. But it would be an injustice to Texas or Florida State, whichever gets kicked to the curb.
Exciting weekend ahead
This might be the most exciting weekend of conference championship games ever. Seven of the 10 teams competing in the Power Five titles have legitimate playoff hopes, and every single one of those games has implications on seeding and who else has a chance.
Washington-Oregon is a de facto playoff game on Friday night. Alabama-Georgia might be, too. Florida State, Texas, and Michigan are in must-win situations against ranked teams.
Ohio State isn’t in action this weekend, but there’s still a path for the Buckeyes to slip into the playoff as the No. 4 seed, just like last season. And they came one field goal away from winning the national title (probably).
If certain scenarios play out, there won’t be much drama during Sunday’s selection show. But I’m guessing at least a couple of fan bases will be sitting on the edge of their seats, hoping for a chance to play for it all.