DETROIT – Last weekend, the Detroit Tigers were heading in the wrong direction.
After a quick 5-0 start left them as the last undefeated team in MLB, they dropped six of their next nine games, including both ends of a doubleheader at home against the Minnesota Twins.
Thanks to a hitless performance that day, Javier Baez -- the team’s highest-paid player -- left the ballpark with a .125 batting average and .265 OPS. He was the worst qualified hitter in the league, with 14 strikeouts, no walks, and no extra-base hits in 43 plate appearances.
Considering his performance in each of the first two seasons with Detroit, Baez’s slow start didn’t feel like a slump. It felt like further proof that his days as a productive major-leaguer were over.
But maybe that was premature.
The next day, after an 0-for-2 start, Baez stepped to the plate in the bottom of the eighth inning and the Tigers trailing 3-0. They were on the verge of being shut out once again and losing three of four games to their division rival.
Right on cue, Baez launched a ball 100.9 mph and 399 feet over the left field fence. The Tigers went on to score three more runs that inning and win the game.
Baez has been a completely different player ever since.
Counting that home run, Baez is 9-for-his-last-27 with three doubles, two walks, two stolen bases, and just five strikeouts.
The most encouraging part of that stat line is the strikeout rate. Baez is the player who chases outside the strike zone most in MLB, but even his strikeouts haven’t been nearly as ugly:
- April 16: Strikeout swinging on the sixth pitch of the at-bat.
- April 20 (1): Strikeout swinging on the sixth pitch of the at-bat.
- April 20 (2): Strikeout looking on the sixth pitch of the at-bat.
- April 21: Strikeout swinging on the fourth pitch of the at-bat.
- April 22: Strikeout looking on the eighth pitch of the at-bat.
There haven’t been any three-pitch sequences where Baez swings at two pitches over his head and one in the dirt. You all know what I mean.
His overall numbers have slowly started to improve during this stretch, with the batting average climbing over .200 and the OPS at .520. The expected numbers are even better -- a .236 xBA and .337 xSLG.
The defense is also vastly improved. After making a combined 45 errors over the past two seasons, Baez has just one so far this year in 21 games at shortstop. His throws have been much more accurate, and he’s still good for the occasional dazzling play.
Baez’s full skill set was on display during Monday’s win over the Rays. He laced two singles at 109.5 and 109.6 mph, took second base on a throw home, scored twice on infield singles/throwing errors, and made two incredible defensive plays at shortstop. He was clearly the most impactful player in the game (aside from Tarik Skubal).
The overall numbers are still terrible, and there’s a chance Baez will cool off and go right back to whiffing at every slider in the left-handed batter’s box.
But for now, there are signs of life, and the timing couldn’t be better for the Tigers, as they try to stay within striking distance of the first-place Cleveland Guardians.
Baez has received (and deserved) heavy criticism for his lack of production in Detroit, but when we get these glimpses of his upside, it makes a huge difference for the Tigers. Hopefully this isn’t just another hoax.