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Red Wings in terrible need of New Year's Eve win -- here's why

Panthers visit Detroit tonight

December was not a good month for the Detroit Red Wings. 

After battling their way out of the league basement in November, going 8-5, the Red Wings fell flat in the month of December. They've posted a 4-10-1 record this month while losing Anthony Mantha, Dan DeKeyser and Mike Green to injuries

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They have one more game before the end of 2018 on Monday night as they host the Florida Panthers, a team they lost to, 2-1, on Dec. 22. This game was on my "must-watch" list released in September, and clearly it belongs there. Detroit needs to finish this year with a statement against a division foe. 

 Glimmer of hope, big step backward 

As stated, with a strong performance in November, this Red Wings season appeared to have much more upside than one may have imagined after such a depressing 0-5-2 start. Dylan Larkin's nightly effort was contagious throughout the lineup, pushing this team toward a possible run for the playoffs. Backstopped by a resurgent Jimmy Howard in net, Detroit was turning some heads as a pesty squad to be reckoned with. 

But since those key injuries in December, this team has been struggling to stay competitive against some of the NHL's better lineups. A 5-1 loss to the trifling Dallas Stars was the culmination of a month gone wrong. It was another slow start for the Red Wings, who were outshot 17-7 in the first period, then again in the second period, 16-9, as they fell into an 0-3 hole against the Stars. Dallas eventually went up 5-0 in the third period.

Larkin -- who else -- helped his team avoid the shutout late in the game. He now has 17 goals and 21 assists for 38 points in 40 games played this season. 

Here's a look back at December: 

Dec. 1, 2018@ BostonW 4-2
Dec. 2, 2018vs. ColoradoL 0-2
Dec. 4, 2018vs. Tampa BayL 5-6
Dec. 6, 2018@ TorontoW 5-4 (OT)
Dec. 8, 2018vs. New York IslandersL 2-3
Dec. 10, 2018vs. Los AngelesW 3-1
Dec. 11, 2018@ WashingtonL 2-6
Dec. 14, 2018vs. Ottawa L 2-4
Dec. 15, 2018@ New York IslandersL 3-4
Dec. 18, 2018@ PhiladelphiaL 2-3
Dec. 20, 2018@ CarolinaW 4-1 | Game Recap
Dec. 22, 2018vs. FloridaL 1-2 | Game Recap
Dec. 23, 2018@ TorontoL 4-5 (OT)
Dec. 27, 2018@ Pittsburgh L 2-5 | Game Recap
Dec. 29, 2018@ DallasL 1-5 | Game Recap

 

Ouch.

View the full Red Wings 2018-19 schedule and outcomes here

 Tanking not an option right now 

Tanking for a better draft pick isn't the ideal option for this team right now. I've written several pieces on it this year: The best option for Detroit right now is to be competitive each night to promote the development of players such as Larkin, Dennis Cholowski, Tyler Bertuzzi, Andreas Athanasiou, Michael Rasmussen, Filip Hronek, Christoffer Ehn, Martin Frk and Jacob de la Rose. Add Mantha to that list and you have the young corps of Red Wings that needs to get stronger for the future. At the very least, they need value place upon them. 

Tanking does them no favors. The worst scenario for the young Red Wings is more games like the one against Dallas where it's basically over before the third period. That's not a healthy environment for development. 

That is not to say they aren't sellers at the deadline. Detroit can sell off a couple pieces such as Gustav Nyquist and/or Howard to get some picks, but the team needs to remain competitive. It's a tricky situation for a franchise trying to transition without committing to an all-out tankfest.

There's much, much more to be written about all of that -- the prospects, the draft picks, the heavy veteran contracts, the goaltending, the future in general -- but I digress for now. 

 Monday night against Panthers 

Howard (10-9-4, .921 SV%) likely gets the start Monday night against Roberto Luongo (8-7-1, .902 SV%). It's a veteran goalie showdown that could be quite entertaining. 

  • Game time: 7:30 p.m.
  • TV: FS-D, FS-F

Look for Larking to be centering Athanasiou and Justin Abdelkader, and look for offense from this line. Athanasiou has 12 goals in 34 games. Theoretically, Abdelkader will create some space for his linmates by being a force in the corners and in front of the net.

Offense won't be an easy task, though, as they will be dealing with Florida's Aleksander Barkov all night. Barkov, the 2nd overall draft pick in 2013, is becoming one of the most aggressive centers in the game. He now has 39 points in 37 games this season. He's flanked by Jonathan Huberdeau and Evgeni Dadonov, who have 44 and 35 points this season, respectively, making their line an imposing force each game. 

However, things get a bit less threatening as you head down Florida's forward lines. Sniper Mike Hoffman still leads the team with 18 goals, but the rest of the offense is less impressive. That means the chemistry and production from Detroit's second line -- likely Frans Nielsen centering Thomas Vanek and Nyquist -- will be of utmost importance Monday night. Detroit needs the scoring depth, just like any other team. Vanek, who has battled injury this year, has just 5 goals in 32 games. A solid crossbar clang in the Stars game added to scoring frustration. He appears ripe for a goal. 

When it comes down to it, the power play could be the deciding factor in this matchup, especially if goaltending becomes the story. Florida has had one of the best this season with a 28.5 power play percentage, ranking 3rd-best in the league behind the Tampa Bay Lighting and Winnipeg Jets -- very good company. 

The Red Wings, meanwhile, are toward the other end of the power play spectrum this season. Their 18.3 percent conversion rate has them in the NHL's bottom 10. They did go 1/4 against the Stars the other night.  

The Panthers are 7 points out of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference while the Red Wings are 2 points behind the Panthers.

 Upcoming schedule 

Jan. 2, 2019vs. Calgary (7 p.m.) 
Jan. 4, 2019vs. Nashville (7:30 p.m.) 
Jan. 6, 2019vs. Washington (5 p.m.) 
Jan. 8, 2019vs. Montreal (7:30 p.m.) 
Jan. 11, 2019@ Winnipeg (8 p.m.) 
Jan. 12, 2019@ Minnesota (8 p.m.) 
Jan. 15, 2019vs. Anaheim (7:30 p.m.) 
Jan. 18, 2019@ Calgary (9 p.m.) 
Jan. 20, 2019 @ Vancouver (4 p.m.) 
Jan. 22, 2019 @ Edmonton (9 p.m.) 

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