Metro Detroit weather: Get set to get wet

Rain reigns the next two days


DETROIT – If you don’t like being outside in cold, windy, rainy weather, here’s a little tip for you…fill your car up with gas today if you would otherwise need to from Thursday through Saturday, because it’s going to be nasty outside.

This evening will be dry if you have outdoor plans, as rain won’t develop until late at night.  Temps will fall into the low 40s (5-6 degrees Celsius).  East to northeast wind at 5-10 mph.

Rain reigns on Thursday.  No ifs, ands or buts about it.  It’s going to rain, it’s going to rain a lot, and it’s going to be a miserable day.  I put the chances of the Tigers playing their afternoon game against the Indians at 0%, but remember that I only inform the Tigers about the weather, I don’t make the actual decision to postpone a game (or delay it)…that’s handled either by Tigers General Manager Al Avila, or the umpires.  But given the amount and long duration of the incoming rain, I cannot envision a scenario where they’ll play.  Highs will struggle into the upper 40s (9 degrees Celsius).  Wind will pick up through the day, and blow at 10 to 20 mph by afternoon.  Yuck.

Thursday’s sunrise (which we won’t see) is at 6:25 a.m., and Thursday’s sunset (which we won’t see) is at 8:36 p.m.

Rain continues Thursday night, with lows in the mid 40s (6-7 degrees Celsius).

There’s more rain to deal with on Friday and, just in case you weren’t satisfied with the misery index for Thursday’s weather, it’ll be even windier than Thursday.  Highs still only in the upper 40s (9 degrees Celsius).

We’re going to get a LOT of rain Thursday into Friday, but the computer models still have not grasped upon a common solution to where the heaviest rain band will set up, nor with how much rain will fall in that rain band.  This is not uncommon, given that we’re talking about a rain total over a roughly forty-eight hour period.  Here are four different models’ projections, and you can easily see the differences:

RPM Forecast:


GFS Forecast:


NAM Forecast:


ECMWF Forecast:


The prudent thing to get from these models is:

  • We’re going to get a lot of rain.
  • There’s still some uncertainty as to where the heaviest amounts will fall, but it appears this will occur in the south and eastern part of our area.
  • There will be a sharp drop-off in rain amounts as you head northwest.
  • If you live in a flood-prone area, definitely monitor what’s happening around you.  And NEVER drive into flood waters on a roadway:  “Turn around, don’t drown!”

    Rain may taper to showers Friday night, with lows in the upper 30s (4 degrees Celsius), and some of us may even see a few wet snowflakes late Friday night / early Saturday morning.

    Saturday looks to be mostly cloudy and still windy, with scattered showers.  Highs near 50 degrees (10 degrees Celsius).

    Mostly cloudy Saturday night, with lows in the upper 30s (4 degrees Celsius).

    Becoming partly cloudy on Sunday, with highs in the mid 50s (13 degrees Celsius).

    As I mentioned yesterday, most of next week looks dry, but today’s models now give us a rain chance on Wednesday. 

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