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Metro Detroit weather: Breaking down thunderstorm, rain chances for rest of this week

Thursday thunderstorms could be stronger

DETROIT – Morning storms left most of us with measurable rain, and there’s more where that came from, especially at the start of the weekend.

Rain returns

The front that focused our morning thunderstorms has lifted north of the area. It’s hotter and more humid, as a result.

That will be the setup for thunderstorms again Thursday. There are some key differences, though. First, the storms will come in the afternoon and evening. Second, there might be fewer of them. Third, they’ll likely be stronger than what we saw Wednesday morning.

We are in a slight risk for severe weather for that period.

On Friday, we’ll see more showers and some thunder. Although the severe risk is lower (marginal), it’s not zero. Our main concern Friday is the amount of rain that’s coming. Parts of the area might see 1-2 inches.

We’ll be monitoring for isolated flash flooding, especially late Friday into Saturday morning. Many of us will be dry after lunch through Monday of next week.

Weekend refreshment

Normal highs are in the low 80s. We’ll be overachieving in the short term.

Highs Thursday will reach 92 degrees. That will be our hottest temperature since July 9. Yes, we’ve been toasty this summer, but its been just moderately above normal, rather than excessive heat (save for that stretch around the Fourth of July).

After Friday’s rain, the humidity relents and temperatures drop to near normal Saturday and below normal for Sunday and Monday.

Laura looms

The National Hurricane Center is using the word “unsurvivable” in its forecasts of Hurricane Laura’s storm surge and waves. Even with some of the dire warnings ahead of Katrina and Rita (which Laura’s path eerily mirrors, almost precisely) in 2005, I don’t believe they used that term.

Nevertheless, and I always say this multiple times every hurricane season, the water will be worse than the wind. Those category numbers (Laura will likely be a 4, with sustained winds of 145 mph) are based solely on wind speed, not on storm surge or flooding potential, tornado probability or size of the storm.

The devil is always in the details, and this storm will be a devil. The Local 4Casters app will get you immediate stats and forecast tracks as soon as they’re issued.

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