Metro Detroit weather: Monitoring heavy rain threat

Scattered shows possible Monday afternoon, more storms ahead

Here is the weather forecast for Metro Detroit.
Here is the weather forecast for Metro Detroit.

DETROITGood Monday morning!

After a fantastic Pure Michigan September weekend, we now turn our attention first to increasing humidity, then to a heavy rain threat, and then to a massive temperature swing.

Monday’s sunrise was at 7:19 a.m.

But first, our Monday is off to a fine start, which means a dry commute to work or wait at the bus stop. Clouds will increase today, however, and scattered showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, will dot the area during the afternoon. Not everybody will necessarily get one, but we’re all at risk.

Highs should be near 80 degrees, with temps leveling off or slipping a bit once skies become cloudier. A southeast wind will shift to the south at 7-13 mph.

Today’s sunset is at 7:34 p.m.

A scattered shower or thunderstorm is possible Monday night, but I don’t expect any widespread rain. Muggy lows in the upper 60s will make for an uncomfortable night if you don’t have air conditioning. A south wind will blow at 10-15 mph.

Rainy week ahead

Any rain we get during the bulk of the daylight hours on Tuesday should be scattered, and possibly even widely scattered.

However, rain and thunderstorms will increase late Tuesday afternoon into the evening, with heavy downpours possible as a strong cold front approaches. At this point I am not expecting any severe weather with these storms, but I’ll continue to monitor this.

Tuesday highs will be in the mid 70s, and it’ll be a steamy day

Rain and storms will continue Tuesday night, with temps dropping sharply into the low-to-mid 50s after the cold front passes by -- which is no surprise, given that the front is simply the front edge of the cold air moving our way.

Most cold fronts that move across our area just keep on moving, but this one is going to stop just to our east. A cut-off low pressure area will develop aloft, which will then develop a surface low pressure area that will remain in close proximity to us Wednesday into Wednesday night, bringing a resurgence of the rain. This time, however, we’ll be in the colder air mass, so breezy rain will be accompanied by highs only near 60 degrees.

Rain should taper off to just showers on Thursday, with highs still only near 60 degrees.

While there are still some important differences among the computer models, all of the models suggest that two-and-a-half to four inches of total rain is possible through Thursday. Obviously, if this falls in a short period of time, then we’ll have more flooding issues. However, if we can spread this rain out and minimize the actual heavy downpours, then this amount of water will be a much-needed soil moisture recharge, since parts of the area are abnormally dry, according to the latest Drought Monitor.

We should get through our Friday dry, with highs recovering to near 70 degrees.

More rain possible this weekend

Another cold front will cross the area late Friday night. If we can get this front out of here by Saturday morning, then we’ll get through the day dry. However, if the front slows down by as much as just a few hours, then we may have some showers Saturday morning before things dry out.

Highs Saturday will be in the upper 60s.

Sunday will be mostly sunny -- another terrific September weekend day -- with highs near 70 degrees.

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About the Author:

Local 4 meteorologist Paul Gross was born in Detroit and has spent his entire life and career right here in southeast Michigan. Paul has researched, written and produced eight half-hour documentaries for WDIV, as well as many science, historical and environmental stories.