Metro Detroit weather: Rain transitions to snow this week -- how much should you expect?

Flood watch issued Thursday in several counties

Snowfall in Metro Detroit on Jan. 24, 2022. (WDIV)

DETROIT – Here is the Metro Detroit weather forecast update for Feb. 15, 2022, afternoon and evening.

A flood watch has been issued for several counties in Southeast Michigan from 4 a.m. to 4 p.m. Thursday. The counties included are Lenawee, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, St. Clair, Washtenaw and Wayne counties.

Warming up midweek

  • Temperatures warm up overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. By daybreak, we’ll be in the mid-30s, then warming into the mid- to upper 40s later in the day.
  • It won’t last, though. We’re back into the lower teens by Friday morning.

Rain/snow Wednesday/Thursday

  • Models continue to be split on two different solutions, resulting in two very drastic differences in what could transpire Thursday.
  • One thing is for certain: We’ll get rain later Wednesday.
  • As a cold front moves through Thursday morning, we will see a transition over to snow, but the timing of the front and the track of the low is ultimately going to tell this tale. So let’s talk about the differences.
  • ECMWF/GRAF models: The front moves through quicker, the low tracks further southeast and this results in more snow for us Thursday. These models are putting down 3-10 inches, with the highest amounts south and southeast.
GRAF model snowfall (WDIV)
  • GFS/Nam models: The front moves through slower, and the low tracks almost right overhead, resulting in more rain and less snow for us Thursday. These models are putting down a trace to near 12 inches, with the highest amounts northwest.
GFS model snowfall (WDIV)
  • So in short, these models are all putting down a lot of snow Thursday, but there’s a good deal of uncertainty about where the bullseye is.
  • At this point, I’m leaning more towards the ECMWF/GRAF models, but we likely won’t get as much as what they’re putting down. Surface temperatures are going to be warm Thursday morning, so the onset of the snow won’t add up as quickly early on.
  • Bottom line: I suspect we’ll get a few inches of snow Thursday, possibly up to 8 inches, in spots.
Snowfall forecast (WDIV)

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