4Warn Weather – A 4Warn Weather Alert has been declared for Thursday as a strong spring system moves into Southeast Michigan, bringing the potential for severe thunderstorms after a significant warmup.
Temperatures will climb into the upper 60s to 70 degrees on Thursday afternoon.
That warmth will help fuel atmospheric energy, setting the stage for storms to develop in the afternoon and evening.
The first storms are expected to begin around 3 p.m., with the greatest risk for severe weather between 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. Showers and thunderstorms will continue later in Southeast Michigan, but most of the rain will end before midnight.
The greatest risk is currently south of M-59, and the risk increases south of I-94.
During the afternoon and early evening, storms may develop as individual cells or small clusters.
In this phase, the risk for large hail and an isolated tornado is higher.
These types of storms are more capable of producing rotation and stronger updrafts.
Storms during the late afternoon and evening could affect the commute home, after-work plans, and evening activities.
As the evening progresses, storms are expected to organize into a line.
When that happens, damaging winds become the main threat.
The most powerful winds could knock down trees and power lines.
Heavy rain may also lead to localized flooding, especially in areas that see repeated storms.
How to stay safe
If you are driving, be prepared for sudden heavy rain.
Avoid driving through flooded roads, and if conditions worsen, consider delaying travel if possible.
If you are at home and a tornado warning is issued, move immediately to the lowest level of your home. A basement is the safest place. If you do not have one, go to a small interior space away from windows, such as a closet.
Conditions can change quickly, so it is important to stay alert and have a plan in place.
Watch vs. warning
Be familiar with what actions to take if watches or warnings are issued.
A severe thunderstorm or tornado watch means conditions are favorable for severe weather.
This is the time to prepare. Charge your phone, monitor the forecast, and be ready to act quickly.
A warning means severe weather is occurring or about to occur. Take action immediately and seek shelter.
Here’s what could limit storm strength
There are a few factors that could limit how strong storms become.
If morning clouds or a few early showers develop, they could limit how much the atmosphere warms up. Less warming means less energy for storms, potentially reducing their intensity.
But if we get enough sunshine during the day, that added warmth will help storms become stronger later in the afternoon and evening.
Friday
After the storms move through, much colder air returns. Friday will feel dramatically different, with highs only in the mid-40s and brisk winds.
This weekend
The weekend brings improvement. Saturday will be cooler but quieter, with highs in the upper 40s.
Sunday turns milder, with highs in the mid-50s and a mix of sun and clouds.
Looking ahead
Looking ahead to early next week, temperatures climb back into the 60s with additional chances for rain.
Stay aware, have multiple ways to receive warnings, and be ready to act if severe weather develops.
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