A 4Warn Weather Alert has been issued for this afternoon and evening across Southeast Michigan as a potent storm system brings the threat of heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe thunderstorms. New this morning, a Flood Watch has been issued for Lenawee, Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, Washtenaw, and Wayne counties through 4:00 a.m. Thursday. The watch highlights an increasing concern for excessive rainfall that could lead to flooding of roads, low-lying areas, and poor drainage locations. Keep checking your basements!
Rain will begin to overspread Southeast Michigan during the afternoon hours, with light but steady rainfall expected to blanket much of the region by mid-afternoon. Conditions will deteriorate further this evening as thunderstorms begin developing after 6 p.m. This could greatly impact the evening drive as rain becomes heavier, possibly reducing visibility and creating ponding and pooling on the roads. Remember, just a few inches of moving water can sweep away a vehicle, so turn around, don’t drown.
Some of these storms may become strong to severe, bringing the risk of damaging wind gusts, large hail, isolated tornadoes, and flash flooding. The greatest concern remains the potential for torrential rainfall rates capable of overwhelming drainage systems and causing localized flooding. Widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected across much of Southeast Michigan, with localized swaths of 3 inches or more possible where thunderstorms repeatedly track over the same locations. The heaviest rainfall is expected between 8 p.m. and midnight. Once again... check the sump pump your basement!
Most of Southeast Michigan remains under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather this afternoon and evening. Areas north of I-69 are included in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5), where isolated severe storms remain possible. Once this storm system exits, a quieter weather pattern settles in for the remainder of the week and much of the weekend. Temperatures will stay slightly below average, with highs generally holding in the 70s.
Looking ahead, long-range forecast models continue to suggest another chance for rain arriving late Sunday. Current trends move that rain out of the area before Monday evening, meaning much of Father’s Day should remain dry and that conditions will improve in time for the Ford Fireworks on Monday night in Detroit. Stay tuned for forecast updates as we get closer to the weekend.