DETROIT – The Detroit Lions are heading into the bye week at the unofficial midway point of what’s been an incredible season so far.
It’s still “early” in the NFL season, with nine games left to play after the break, but I think we’ve seen enough to draw some confident conclusions about this team.
1. Lions are favorites in NFC North
This has been obvious for about a month now, but the Lions are absolutely the favorites to win their very first NFC North Division title.
Right now, they’re two full games ahead of the Minnesota Vikings, and four games ahead of the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears in the win column.
The Vikings have made quite a push the past three weeks, sandwiching road divisional wins at Chicago and Green Bay around an impressive victory over the San Francisco 49ers. It’s clear the Vikings are the greatest threat to the Lions, but they just lost quarterback Kirk Cousins for the rest of the season, and superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson is also out with an injury.
If a division title doesn’t happen this season, maybe it’ll never happen, because the Lions haven’t been in such a strong position.
2. Lions are contenders for No. 1 seed
I’ll admit, my confidence in the Lions as a true contender for the No. 1 seed wavered after that blowout loss to the Baltimore Ravens, but the more I look at it, the more real it seems.
Why do I think it’s possible? Three reasons. First, I think the Lions are a very good team. Second, the 49ers have lost three in a row. Third, Detroit’s schedule is much easier than Philadelphia’s the rest of the way.
The Eagles currently have the best record in the NFL at 7-1, but the Lions are only one game behind. Detroit has one game left against a team that currently has a winning record, and three games left against teams with a 4-4 record. Philadelphia has six games remaining against teams with winning records (the next six games in a row).
Even though it’s been a rough stretch, we can’t discount the 49ers, either. They have five games left against winning teams.
So while it still seems like the Eagles and 49ers are more complete teams, the Lions have a legitimate shot at the top seed because of their remaining schedule.
3. Detroit has its quarterback
His numbers in the final 10 games of last season suggested that Jared Goff might be enjoying a career resurgence, but most Lions fans wanted to see him prove it this year.
Well, he’s done just that.
Goff looks like one of the league’s top 10 quarterbacks right now, completing 68.3% of his passes for 2,174 yards, 12 touchdowns, and five interceptions.
When the Lions didn’t use their two first-round picks to land a quarterback in this year’s draft, they essentially went all-in on Goff. The team is too good to get a top-10 draft pick for the next several years, and trading for a high-end quarterback has become incredibly expensive in the NFL.
So Goff is the guy, and he appears ready for that role.
Even though it feels like he’s been in the league forever, Goff just turned 29 years old in the middle of October. The Lions will likely reach an agreement that makes him the face of their franchise for at least the next half-decade.
4. Solid defense at all 3 levels
Brad Holmes didn’t add to the defense before the NFL trade deadline, and maybe that will come back to haunt the Lions. But I can see why he felt he didn’t need to mortgage the future.
Last season, the Lions were an abject disaster on defense for the majority of the year. That’s no longer the case. This team is very solid at all three levels.
Pressuring the quarterback has been a problem at times for the Lions, and that raises concerns looking ahead to possible playoff matchups with Philadelphia, San Francisco, or Seattle. But if James Houston comes back and joins Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill, and Julian Okwara in the rotation, that could be enough.
Against the run, the Lions’ defensive front has been excellent, in part because of that defensive line, but also thanks to the linebacking duo of Alex Anzalone and Derrick Barnes. Rookie Jack Campbell is also coming along.
Injuries to C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Emmanuel Moseley have crippled the secondary, but Cam Sutton, Jerry Jacobs, and Brian Branch have been strong when they’re on the field, and the combination of Kerby Joseph, Will Harris, and Ifeatu Melifonwu are capable fill-ins.
5. Lethal running back duo
David Montgomery was one of the most productive running backs in the league before going down with an injury. He carried the ball 94 times for 385 yards and six touchdowns in just five games.
But now, he’s not even the team’s leading rusher, after rookie Jahmyr Gibbs went off for 152 yards against the Las Vegas Raiders.
In two games since Montgomery went down, Gibbs has piled up 220 rushing yards and 95 receiving yards. And he’s done that all while coming back from an injury of his own.
Montgomery needs to get healthy, but once he does, the Lions will have perhaps the most lethal running back duo in the NFC, which is exactly what they envisioned when they drafted Gibbs.
6. Injuries are greatest concern
If there’s one thing that could derail this Lions fairy tale, it’s injuries. The depth created by Holmes through the draft has already been tested on both sides of the ball.
Penei Sewell is the only starting offensive lineman who hasn’t dealt with a significant injury, and the Lions were without both Jonah Jackson and Frank Ragnow on the interior against the Raiders.
Injuries to Montgomery, Houston, Gardner-Johnson, and Moseley have forced much younger players into action. So far it hasn’t sunk the Lions, but it creates more possible spots for something to go wrong.
The first order of business during this bye week is to get healthy along the offensive line. And if Montgomery and Houston can return sooner rather than later, it would be as if Holmes made a couple of major additions at the deadline.