DETROIT – The Detroit Lions are probably going to make the playoffs this season, and their first-round opponent is likely to be one of three teams.
Saying the Lions are “probably going to make the playoffs” is actually a bit of an understatement. It would take a collapse of epic proportions to go from 8-2 to missing the postseason in the next seven weeks.
An NFC North title is less certain, but the Lions are in a very good spot. They lead the Minnesota Vikings by 2.5 games, and the schedule over the next four weeks isn’t exactly daunting.
So, just for the sake of this exercise, let’s say the Lions win the North. They would probably be either the No. 2 seed or the No. 3 seed -- the Philadelphia Eagles have a strong grip on the top seed and the NFC South winner is likely to be the worst of the division champs.
Whether the Lions are the No. 2 or No. 3 seed is irrelevant in this particular conversation, because either way, they would host a wildcard team in the first round -- either the No. 7 or No. 6 seed.
Well, in the NFC, the three wildcard teams are starting to take form pretty clearly.
Dallas Cowboys
It’s pretty clear the Cowboys are going to be a playoff team. Not only are they tied for the third-best record in the league at 7-3, they also own the top point differential in the entire NFC.
So far, the Cowboys have outscored their opponents by 127 points, which is outrageous for a team that’s already lost three times. Sure, the schedule has been fairly easy (Dallas has a .292 strength of victory, second lowest in the NFL), but this is obviously a playoff team.
Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they share a division with the Eagles, so it’s going to be hard to avoid going on the road for the wildcard round.
Seattle Seahawks
Lions fans are very familiar with the Seahawks, who came to Detroit earlier this season and beat the Lions for the third year in a row.
Seattle is in a similar situation to Dallas in that it shares a division with the San Francisco 49ers. Those two head-to-head matchups will obviously go a long way toward deciding which team wins the West and which settles for a wildcard spot. But so far, the 49ers have looked clearly superior.
The Seahawks have impressive wins over the Lions and Browns, but also a pair of surprising losses to the Rams that could really hurt them in a potential division tiebreaker scenario.
Even though the 49ers are only one game ahead right now, it feels like the Seahawks will end up with a wildcard unless they sweep both head-to-head matchups.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings finally lost a football game last weekend, falling to the Denver Broncos by a single point and snapping a five-game winning streak.
Minnesota probably deserves to be better than 6-5. It lost games by three, six, four, and seven points earlier in the season. And two of those losses came against the Eagles and Chiefs.
During their five-game winning streak, the Vikings were playing without their best player, wide receiver Justin Jefferson. He’s going to return at some point, and that’ll be a huge boost to an offense that’s continued to produce without Kirk Cousins.
The Vikings already won in Green Bay, so they hold that head-to-head tiebreaker. Their remaining schedule is also fairly manageable, with games against the Bears, Raiders, Packers, and Joe Burrow-less Bengals.
No easy matchups
Again, a lot can change over the next seven weeks, but it sure feels like the playoffs will begin with the Lions hosting one of these three teams at Ford Field.
The Packers, Rams, Falcons, and Buccaneers are all just 1.5 games behind the Vikings for that final wildcard spot, so they could get back into the mix. But the major difference between those teams and the Vikings is that the Vikings are actually good (and yes, I know the Bucs beat the Vikings two months ago).
So we’re left with three primary options, and none of them would make for easy matchups.
The Cowboys, as previously stated, have been one of the most dominant overall teams in the league. The Seahawks have had Detroit’s number for years (including this one). And the Lions and Vikings would be playing for the third time in four weeks, which could make the game (ironically) unpredictable.
Another interesting element to this equation is that the Lions will visit the Cowboys on the penultimate week of the regular season.
The final three games of the Lions’ schedule look like this:
- Week 16: at Minnesota.
- Week 17: at Dallas.
- Week 18: vs. Minnesota.
If Minnesota, Dallas, and Seattle are indeed the three wildcard teams, then the Lions would have a 67% chance to host a team they just played in the first round of the postseason. And even Seattle would be a rematch from earlier in the year.
It’s been a long time since the Lions were on the right side of the playoff bubble. If they do end up hosting the first-ever postseason game at Ford Field, one thing is clear: It’ll be a major challenge.