DETROIT – The Detroit Lions have remained firmly in the playoff race this season for the first time in a long time, but let’s take a realistic look at where they stand heading into the final six weeks.
NFC North Division
The most important battle for the Lions is and always has been the race for the NFC North. They’ve dominated this particular race since the start of the season, and, with a bit of help, their lead is still fairly comfortable.
Detroit missed a prime opportunity to bury the Packers for good on Thanksgiving, but with the loss, the NFC North lead over Minnesota dropped to just two games. Fortunately for the Lions, that lead is back up to 2.5 after the Bears upset the Vikings on Monday Night Football.
So as it stands, both the Vikings and Packers are three games behind the Lions in the loss column. Detroit split the head-to-head meetings with Green Bay and has yet to play Minnesota.
The Bears, at 4.5 games back, are not in the race. But they’re playing much better football recently and will have a say in who ultimately wins the division.
After winning five in a row, the Vikings have dropped back-to-back games against the Broncos and Bears, but they’re heading into a bye week and will get superstar receiver Justin Jefferson back from injury. With games against the Raiders, Bengals, and Packers remaining -- in addition to those two matchups with Detroit -- the Vikings can’t be counted out quite yet.
But they’re going to need a lot of help from the Lions.
Recent struggles notwithstanding, the Lions have looked like the best team in the North all season, and the lead is still 2.5 games. The division has never been more ripe for the taking.
NFC seeding
If the Lions do hold on to win the North, they’ll guarantee themselves a home playoff game and earn one of the top four seeds in the NFC.
What the loss to Green Bay did, however, was ensure that the Lions will not have a chance at the No. 1 overall seed. The Eagles are 10-1 with three cupcake games against the Giants, Cardinals, and Giants to end the season, so the top spot is all but locked up.
The No. 4 seed also looks pretty well accounted for, especially if the Lions can take down the Saints this weekend. Atlanta and New Orleans are currently tied atop the NFC South at 5-6, so whoever wins that division is likely to receive the fourth spot.
Which leaves the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds for the North and West winners.
Lions vs. 49ers
Right now, the Lions and 49ers are both leading their divisions and tied at 8-3, but the 49ers have the tiebreaker because of a better record in conference.
This is a critical race to watch because if both teams win their divisions and advance to the second round of the playoffs, the No. 2 seed would play at home. The Lions would much rather host the 49ers at Ford Field than travel out to San Francisco.
For the rest of the regular season, unless the Lions fumble their lead in the division, this is probably the most important race to keep an eye on.
San Francisco has an incredibly difficult game in Philadelphia this weekend, which not only gives the Lions a chance to go up by a game, but also even up that conference record tiebreaker.
The 49ers also have to play the Seahawks and Ravens before the season ends -- both at home. Trips to Arizona and Washington, as well as a home game against the Rams, should be fairly simple for the 49ers.
Detroit likely has to find a way to finish the regular season winning at least four of the final six games to have a chance at the No. 2 seed, and that’s a tall order, considering road trips to Dallas, Minnesota, New Orleans, and Chicago are all coming up. Even the home games against the Vikings and Broncos don’t feel safe after that performance on Thanksgiving Day.
If the Lions win their division and settle for the No. 3 seed (which seems to be the most likely scenario), it would count as a successful regular season. But that loss to Green Bay made it a whole lot tougher.