DETROIT – There are two ways the Detroit Lions can clinch a playoff spot over the next 48 hours: One on Sunday and one on Monday.
Before the Packers lost to the Giants on Monday Night Football, the Lions needed both the Seahawks and Rams to lose this weekend in order to clinch a playoff spot. The reason: There was a scenario where both Green Bay and Minnesota could have finished ahead of the Lions, thus leaving just one hypothetical wildcard spot for the Lions, Seahawks, and Rams to fight over.
But the Packers and Vikings both lost their seventh games this week, while the Lions picked up their 10th win. That means the best the Packers and Vikings can finish this year is 10-7, but since they have to physically play each other in two weeks, they can’t both finish 10-7.
So the Lions are guaranteed to finish ahead of at least one of those two teams, leaving two spots available for the Lions, Rams, and Seahawks in a theoretical scenario where the Lions lose their final three games.
Even though the Lions can take care of business and clinch themselves with one more win, it’s possible their return to the postseason will become official in the next 48 hours.
Here are the two ways the Lions can clinch:
1. Rams lose
- Game details: Rams vs. Commanders at 4:05 p.m. Sunday
The Rams are 6-7 on the season, so another loss would guarantee they can’t catch the Lions.
Unfortunately, the Rams are hosting a Washington team that’s pretty much packed it in for the season. After starting out 2-0, the Commanders have lost nine of 11 games, including each of the last four.
I’ve seen some confusion over whether the Rams losing would be enough to officially secure Detroit’s spot, and I’m going to go over that clarification below.
2. Seahawks lose
- Game details: Seahawks vs. Eagles at 8:15 p.m. Monday.
This is the simplest and most likely way for the Lions to clinch this weekend.
Philadelphia is one of the top teams in the NFL, and it’s much more likely that the Eagles would beat the Seahawks than the Commanders finding a way to beat the Rams.
If the Seahawks lose, there are six teams in the NFC that can’t catch the Lions and three others who could mathematically force a tie but would then lose the head-to-head tiebreaker. That’s nine teams out of 16 eliminated, so the Lions would be guaranteed to finish in the top seven.
Why NFC South teams don’t matter (I think)
There was some chatter that the Lions would also need either the Buccaneers or Falcons to lose in addition to the Rams. I don’t believe that’s the case, and I’ll explain why.
Let’s say the Rams lose on Sunday and then the Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Falcons all win out and go 10-7, while the Lions lose out to also finish 10-7.
The first order of business for the NFL would be to break the tie between the Buccaneers and Falcons to determine an NFC South winner. Long story short, those two teams split the head-to-head meetings and would finish with the same division record in this scenario.
The tiebreaker would move to records vs. common opponents. Tampa Bay is 9-3 against their common opponents, while Atlanta is 8-4.
So the Buccaneers would win the division, leaving two wildcard spots for the Lions, Seahawks, and Falcons.
Since none of those three teams have a head-to-head sweep over the other two, the tiebreaker would move to conference record. The Lions would be eliminated here with a 6-6 record because the other two would be 7-5.
But read this clarification on the NFL tiebreaking procedures: “Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or wild card tie-breakers.”
So just because the Falcons and Seahawks have superior conference records doesn’t mean both get in ahead of Detroit. That would only eliminate the Lions from consideration for the No. 6 seed, not the playoffs altogether.
The Seahawks would ultimately beat the Falcons for the No. 6 seed due to a superior record against common opponents. Then, the Lions and Falcons would be compared, starting back at the top of the tiebreaker chart.
Since the Lions beat the Falcons head-to-head, the Lions would get the No. 7 seed.
That’s how I interpret the tiebreaker rules, so I believe a Rams loss would be enough on its own to get the Lions into the playoffs.
The same goes for a loss by the Seahawks. If the Rams, Lions, Buccaneers, and Falcons all finish in a tie, Tampa Bay will win the NFC South, the Rams will get the No. 6 seed thanks to a superior conference record, and the Lions will get No. 7 thanks to the head-to-head over Atlanta.