DETROIT – With three weeks left in the regular season, the Detroit Lions are still alive for the No. 1 seed, but they could also miss the playoffs entirely.
NEW BREAKDOWN: Why Detroit Lions now control their own destiny for No. 2 seed in NFC
Here’s a look at every possible playoff scenario facing the Lions.
No. 1 seed
Right now, the San Francisco 49ers have a firm grasp on the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They’re the only 11-3 team, and they also have a two-game lead over the Lions in the conference record tiebreaker.
To steal the top seed, Detroit also would have to vault the Philadelphia Eagles, who are 10-3 and visit the Seahawks on Monday Night Football.
Here’s how the Lions can get the No. 1 seed:
- Lions finish 3-0.
- Eagles lose to Seahawks or finish 2-2.
- 49ers finish 1-2.
Technically, the Lions could also get the No. 1 seed by going 2-1 if the 49ers finish 0-3 and the Eagles finish 1-3, but that’s not realistic.
It’s important for the Eagles to specifically lose to the Seahawks because that would give the Lions the “common opponents” tiebreaker over the Eagles. If the Eagles beat the Seahawks, then the Lions need them to lose two of their final three games. That’s not going to happen.
The 49ers have to play Baltimore next week, but then they visit the Commanders and host the Rams. That schedule makes a 1-2 finish very unlikely.
No. 2 seed
Let’s assume the 49ers don’t lose two of their final three games. The No. 2 seed would still be within the Lions’ reach.
Here’s how the Lions can get the No. 2 seed:
- Lions finish 3-0.
- Eagles lose to Seahawks or finish 2-2.
It’s pretty unlikely that the Eagles are going to lose two of their final three games (two against the Giants and one against the Cardinals), so Monday night will determine whether the Lions can compete for the No. 2 seed.
If Seattle beats Philadelphia, then the Lions and Eagles will both be 10-4 on the season. If both teams win out in that scenario, they would be 13-4 with identical 9-3 records against the NFC.
That would trigger a tiebreaker comparing their records against common opponents. In this scenario, the Eagles would be 4-2 and the Lions would be 5-1, thus giving Detroit the better seed.
No. 3 seed
This is, by far, the most likely landing spot. Detroit is currently third in the NFC and will almost certainly end up there when the postseason begins.
As long as the Lions win one of their final three games, they will clinch the NFC North Division and lock up a top-three seed. Climbing any higher would require quite a bit of help.
Here’s how the Lions can get the No. 3 seed:
- Lions win at least 1 of their final 3 games OR Vikings lose to Packers.
- 49ers win at least 2 of their final 3 games OR finish with at least the same record as the Lions.
- Eagles and/or Cowboys finish with better record than Lions AND/OR Eagles beat Seahawks and finish with same record as Lions AND/OR Cowboys beat Lions and finish with same record as Lions.
No. 4 seed
It’s impossible for the Lions to end up as the No. 4 seed.
The Buccaneers and Saints are both 7-7, so theoretically, one of them could finish in a tie with the Lions at 10-7. But even in that scenario, if the Lions win the NFC North (meaning a Vikings loss to the Packers), the Lions would own the head-to-head tiebreaker and earn the No. 3 seed.
There’s no possible scenario where the Lions, the NFC South winner, and another NFC division winner finish in a three-way tie, either.
If the Lions go 10-7, that means the Cowboys finish with at least 11 wins (because they play head to head). If the Lions and Eagles both finish 10-7, that means the Cowboys win the NFC East, because, again, they would have a minimum of 11 wins.
So there’s no way for the Lions to finish fourth in the NFC.
No. 5 seed
This is also impossible.
The No. 5 seed goes to the league’s top wildcard team, and for the Lions to be a wildcard team, they would have to lose the division.
That means the Lions would have to lose the rest of their games and finish 10-7 while the Vikings win the division via tiebreaker. In that scenario, the Cowboys would have beaten the Lions to get to 11 wins. Either the Cowboys would be the No. 5 seed or the Eagles would drop into a wildcard spot.
There’s no way they can win a tiebreaker with the Eagles if both teams are 10-7. Philadelphia would have the same conference record, but it would have a superior record against “common opponents.”
So the Lions would fall to at least sixth.
No. 6 seed
If the Lions lose their final three games, this is the most likely landing spot.
Here’s how the Lions can get the No. 6 seed:
- Lions finish 0-3.
- Vikings finish 3-0.
- Rams lose at least 1 more game.
- Seahawks lose at least 1 more game.
Both the Rams and Seahawks would own the hypothetical tiebreaker over the Lions if the Lions finish 10-7.
The Rams host the Saints this week and then end the season with road trips to the Giants and 49ers. That’s a difficult stretch to survive without a loss.
Seattle hosts Philadelphia on Monday Night Football before heading to Tennessee next week, hosting the Steelers in Week 17, and ending at Arizona.
No. 7 seed
This would require either the Rams or the Seahawks to win out, but not both.
Here’s how the Lions can get the No. 7 seed:
- Lions finish 0-3.
- Vikings finish 3-0.
- Rams finish 3-0 OR Seahawks finish 4-0, but not both.
Miss playoffs
There’s only one scenario in which the Lions can get left out of the postseason, and it involves 11 specific outcomes over the next 20 days.
I wrote more in-depth about this scenario in a separate article. Click here to read it. The bullet points below are a brief overview.
Here’s how the Lions can get left out of the playoffs:
- Lions finish 0-3.
- Vikings finish 3-0.
- Rams finish 3-0.
- Seahawks finish 4-0.
Obviously, this is not going to happen (right? RIGHT!?), but since it’s technically possible, we’ll include it.