DETROIT – The Detroit Lions are in the driver’s seat to earn the No. 2 seed in the NFC, but what would it take for them to steal the No. 1 seed from the 49ers and get a first-round bye in the playoffs?
Right now, the Lions are part of a four-team tier at the top of the conference, with the San Francisco 49ers alone at 11-3 and the Lions, Dallas Cowboys, and Philadelphia Eagles one game behind at 10-4.
Each of the other three have clinched playoff spots, but the Lions still need one more win to lock up the NFC North or a loss by the Rams or Seahawks to ensure they’ll at least earn a wildcard.
But there are two unlikely scenarios that would result in the Lions finishing with the top seed in the conference. I don’t think there’s a realistic chance that either plays out, but let’s break them down anyway!
Lions win out, 49ers lose twice
There’s no scenario where the Lions can win a tiebreaker with the 49ers, who have a 9-1 conference record compared to Detroit’s 6-3 conference record.
As a result, the Lions have to finish with a better overall record than the 49ers to earn the No. 1 seed. So that means the 49ers need to lose two of their final three games.
This week, San Francisco hosts the only other 11-3 team in the NFL: the Baltimore Ravens. Should the Ravens win, it would take just one upset to give the Lions a chance.
San Francisco finishes the season with a trip to Washington against the 4-10 Commanders and a home game against the 7-7 Rams, who might be fighting for their playoff lives.
So, in essence, the Lions need to beat the Vikings twice and win in Dallas against the 10-4 Cowboys while the 49ers lose to the Ravens and Rams at home.
Summary:
- Lions beat Vikings, Cowboys, and Vikings.
- 49ers lose two of final three games against Ravens, Commanders, and Rams.
Again, this scenario requires three upsets (Lions over Cowboys, Ravens over 49ers, and Rams over 49ers -- all on the road), so it’s not likely. But it’s far more likely than the second option we’re about to discuss.
Lions win twice, 49ers lose out
Technically, the Lions could still lose one of their final three games and stay alive for the No. 1 seed, but that would require the 49ers to lose to the Ravens, Commanders, and Rams.
San Francisco has already had one three-game losing streak this season, but that came against a trio of playoff contenders in Cleveland, Minnesota, and Cincinnati. The 49ers losing to the Commanders would be a stunning result.
In this scenario, the Lions would either need to beat the Cowboys head-to-head or the Cowboys would need to lose to both the Dolphins and the Commanders. Even if the Cowboys lost to the Dolphins and finished in a 12-5 tie with the Lions, a head-to-head win would give them the tiebreaker over Detroit.
Here’s the other complication: If the Lions lose one of their final three games, they no longer hold the “common opponents” tiebreaker over the Eagles. Instead, both teams would be 4-2 against their mutual opponents.
That means the Eagles would have either have to lose twice (against the Giants, Cardinals, and Giants) or the Lions would have to pass the Eagles in the strength of victory metric.
Here’s the current strength of victory comparison between the two teams:
- Lions: .429 (the 10 teams the Lions beat have a combined 60-80 record).
- Eagles: .493 (the 10 teams the Eagles beat have a combined 69-71 record).
In this scenario, we are assuming that the Lions and Eagles each lose one more game. If the Lions split with the Vikings and beat the Cowboys, their theoretical SOV would rise to .458 (77-91). If the Lions lose to the Cowboys and beat the Vikings twice, their theoretical SOV would rise to .440 (74-94).
If the Eagles split with the Giants and beat the Cardinals, their theoretical SOV would fall to .458 (77-91). If the Eagles lose to the Cardinals and beat the Giants twice, their theoretical SOV would fall to .470 (79-89).
So there’s actually a scenario in which the Lions and Eagles come out with identical strength of victory numbers -- but that’s using all the current records in the NFL. Obviously, the teams they have beaten will also win and lose games over the next three weeks.
Let’s say the Lions split with the Vikings and the Eagles split with the Giants. Both teams would have a current theoretical SOV of .458. The Lions would win the SOV tiebreaker over the Eagles if the combination of these top teams wins more games than the combination of these bottom teams over the final three weeks:
- Lions: Falcons, Packers, Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, Bears, Saints, and Broncos.
- Eagles: Patriots, Commanders (counted double because the Eagles beat them twice), Rams, Dolphins, Bills, Giants, and Cardinals.
NOTE: I removed the common victories from both lists, because they would cancel each other out.
Summary:
- Lions win 2 of final 3 games.
- 49ers lose to Ravens, Commanders, and Rams.
- Cowboys lose to Lions OR lose to both Dolphins and Commanders.
- Eagles lose 2 of final 3 games OR fall behind Lions in strength of victory.
As you can see, this second scenario is even more unlikely than the Lions missing the playoffs altogether.