DETROIT – The Detroit Lions need a lot of help in the final week of the regular season to earn the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs.
Detroit’s heartbreaking loss in Dallas all but ended the chance of securing a top-two seed in the postseason. The San Francisco 49ers clinched the top spot, and the Cowboys have a very easy path to finish second.
But it’s technically not over yet.
Here’s everything the Lions need this week to earn the No. 2 seed.
Lions beat Vikings
- Game details: 1 p.m. Sunday in Detroit.
First and foremost, the Lions have to win their own game to give themselves a shot. They’re facing a rematch with a desperate Vikings team that still has a small chance of its own to get into the postseason.
The Lions clinched a playoff berth two weeks ago with an uncomfortable last-minute victory in Minnesota. At the time, the Vikings were still in decent position to get into the postseason, as well, but a 33-10 loss to the Packers on Sunday night has them on the brink of elimination.
Detroit and Minnesota kick off at 1 p.m., while the Cowboys don’t start until 4:25 p.m. Sunday. So the Lions will still be alive for the No. 2 seed as they play this game.
NOTE: A tie would also be good enough for the Lions if both the Cowboys and Eagles lose.
Commanders beat Cowboys
- Game details: 4:25 p.m. Sunday in Washington.
This is the biggest hurdle for the Lions. Even though the Cowboys have a losing record on the road this season, the Commanders are on their own level of awful.
Washington has lost seven games in a row since Nov. 5, and when it played in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, the score was an unsightly 45-10.
But for the Lions to improve their seed, this is what has to happen. If Detroit and Dallas both finish with the same record, the Cowboys win the tiebreaker due to the head-to-head result.*
Giants beat Eagles
- Game details: 4:25 p.m. Sunday in East Rutherford, N.J.
If the Cowboys lose and the Eagles beat the Giants, the Eagles would win the NFC East Division. That means the Lions would have to compete with them for the No. 2 seed.
After Philadelphia’s shocking home loss to the Cardinals last week, the Eagles fell into a tie for the division lead. Dallas owns the tiebreaker due to overall conference record, so the Eagles are currently sitting in the top wildcard spot (No. 5 in the NFC).
If the Lions and Eagles both win this weekend, their own tiebreaker would be fairly complex to calculate.
Both teams would have identical records against the NFC (8-4) and against common opponents (4-2). So the tiebreaker moves to strength of victory -- the combined record of all the teams they have defeated.
If the Lions beat the Vikings and the Eagles beat the Giants, these will be the combined records of the opponents they’ve defeated (counting the losses by the Vikings and Giants):
- Eagles: 88-107.
- Lions: 84-110.
Now, we can remove the Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Vikings (one Vikings game for the Lions) from the equation because both the Lions and Eagles beat those teams, and therefore, they will cancel each other out.
That means the Lions would need the top group of teams to win at least four more games this weekend than the bottom group of teams:
- Falcons, Packers, Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, Bears, Saints, and Broncos.
- Patriots, Commanders, Rams, Dolphins, Commanders (counted twice), Cowboys, and Bills.
Remember, for this tiebreaker to matter, the Cowboys have to lose to the Commanders, so that adds two wins and one loss to the Eagles’ theoretical SOV.
Also, the Dolphins and Bills play each other this weekend. That’s another win and another loss for the Eagles’ SOV, either way.
Updated SOV:
- Eagles: 91-109.
- Lions: 84-110.
So the Lions are automatically at least seven games back. Let’s say the Rams lose to the 49ers and the Patriots lose to the Jets. The Eagles’ final SOV (without the mutual games included) would be 91-111.
So to force another tie, the Lions would need seven of these eight teams to win: Falcons, Packers, Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, Bears, Saints, and Broncos.
Unfortunately, that’s not mathematically possible. The Falcons play the Saints and the Broncos play the Raiders this weekend. That guarantees at least two of those eight teams will lose (even if they tie, it counts as one win and one loss for the Lions’ SOV).
As you can see, the Lions can no longer win a tiebreaker with the Eagles, so they need the Giants to pull off an upset to have any chance at the No. 2 seed.
Conclusion
When Taylor Decker caught that two-point conversion in Dallas and the Lions celebrated in the end zone, it looked like they were just one game away from locking up home field advantage until the NFC Championship Game.
But now, that’s no longer the case. The Lions need all three of these outcomes to move up to No. 2:
- Lions beat Vikings (or tie if both Cowboys and Eagles lose).
- Commanders beat Cowboys (or tie if Lions win).
- Giants beat Eagles (or tie if Lions win).
It’s not going to happen, but at least it’s simple. And since both of the other games kick off at 4:25 p.m., the Lions will still have something to play for this weekend.